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Message: <blockquote data-quote="dalvinder45" data-source="post: 226250" data-attributes="member: 26009">Analysis of the ceasefire between Israel and Gaza Colonel Dr. Dalvinder Singh Grewal                                                    Prof Emeritus Desh Bhagat UniveresityHamas and Israel have signed a cease-fire agreement brokered by Qatar, Egypt and the United States. The Prime Minister of Qatar, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman bin Jassim Al Thani, announced on 15 January 2025 that the deal will take effect on 19 January 2025. The historic agreement includes the release of the first batch of 33 Israeli hostages and 2,000 Palestinian prisoners on the first day and Israeli will withdraw its forces from Gaza, which is expected to calm the guns in Gaza. According to the agreement, around 600 humanitarian aid trucks will be allowed to enter the Strip on a daily basis. This also includes post-war reconstruction efforts in the Gaza Territories, where more than 70 percent of buildings have been destroyed by continuous Israeli bombardment since October 7, 2023. Internally displaced Palestinians will be allowed to return to northern Gaza on January 25, the seventh day of the accord.Palestinians have been bearing the onslaught from Israel for 467 days now. The latest intensified Israeli offensive that began on October 7, 2023, following attacks on southern Israel led by the Palestinian group Hamas has now continued for more than 15 months of daily bombardment, death, injuries, displacement and starvation. The attack on Israelis killed more than 1,100 people and about 240 were taken captive. Many of the captives were either released in a prisoner exchange in November 2023 or later killed during Israeli attacks. After these attacks, to get the remaining captives released; to eliminate Hamas and to teach Palestinians a lesson, Israel launched a brutal offensive with airstrikes and tightened its blockade of Gaza which has been in place since 2007.Over the past 15 months, at least 46,707 people have been killed, including nearly 18,000 children, as well as 110,265 injured as a result of the war in Gaza. Many analysts and human rights activists believe that the actual number killed is much higher. According to the World Health Organization, nearly a quarter of the injured, an estimated 22,500 people, have severe major limb injuries. According to the United Nations agency for Palestine refugees, Israel's blockade kills 10 children every day from operations and amputations.Apart from the confirmation of the dead, thousands of people are feared to be buried under the debris. About 1.9 million people are homeless in Gaza, with about 80 percent living in makeshift shelters without adequate clothing or protection from the cold. Despite worldwide condemnation and pleas from international organizations and human rights groups, Israel has continued its campaign of mass punishment through destruction and killings by lethal bombing in the besieged enclave, where half the population now is under 18 years old.According to the Palestinian Authority for Environmental Quality, an estimated 85,000 tons of explosives have been dropped on Gaza. The United Nations Development Program, experts predict that it could take more than a decade to clean up the debris left over from the bombing, which totals more than 4.2 million tons. On top of clearing the debris is the danger of dealing with undetected bombs. As a result of bombing, 70% of buildings in northern Gaza and 74% in Gaza City are damaged or destroyed. Gaza, home to 2.3 million Palestinians, has been reduced to rubble. It is not known how many people have died under the rubble. More than 90 percent of Gaza's population has been forcibly displaced in this war. United Nations agencies estimate that nearly half a million people are in flood-affected areas. Gaza officials said that in addition due to incessant rains, about 110,000 of the 135,000 tents being used as shelters in the Gaza Strip were damaged and unfit for use.Apart from this huge loss of the Philistines, Israel has also suffered comparatively minor losses. As on 31 December 2024, 987 Israeli security forces and 982 civilians were killed and 13,500 Israelis were wounded and 251 were taken prisoner or kidnapped.The agreement is expected to be implemented in three phases starting on 19 January 2025, the deal was approved by the Hamas group on 15 January 2025. The three-month deal would include an increase in humanitarian aid, a gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces and the release of Israeli prisoners in exchange for Palestinian prisoners.After February 3, the 16th day since the start of the ceasefire, the parties have agreed to start the second phase of talks. On the 22nd day, February 9, citizens will be allowed to return north through both Al-Rasheed Street and Salah Al-Din Street without being screened. The first phase will be completed on March 1 (Day 42). As of this date, 33 Israeli prisoners are to be released in exchange for 100 Palestinian prisoners. Many Palestinians told that they plan to return to their towns and villages when they get the chance.If the first phase is successfully completed, the second phase will follow. In return, Israel will withdraw from Gaza and commit to a permanent ceasefire. 94 Israeli prisoners, dead or alive, will be released in exchange for more than 1,000 Palestinians. It also included the release of the remaining 65 Israeli captives. About 30 of the 94 hostages are believed to be dead. On March 9 (Day 50), Israeli forces will also begin their withdrawal from the Philadelphia Corridor separating Gaza from Egypt. Cars and any non-pedestrian traffic will be allowed back north of the Nezarim Corridor that divides Gaza between north and south. However, Israel has insisted that to rule out a resumption of hostilities, no written guarantees have been made. Hamas was reportedly given verbal guarantees by Egypt, Qatar and the US that talks would continue.The third phase is scheduled to begin on April 12 (Day 84) with details still unclear. This phase will begin only after the conditions of the second phase are met, when the remaining prisoners and the bodies of the survivors are to be handed over in exchange for a three- to five-year reconstruction plan under international supervision. There is currently no agreement on this. Who will manage Gaza after the ceasefire? The US has pushed for a reformed version of the Palestinian Authority to do so. Aid agencies have called for unfettered humanitarian access to Gaza, where famine could occur if aid is delayed. Many Palestinians said they plan to return to their towns and villages when they get the chance. Umm Mohammed, a 66-year-old woman who lost two of her 10 children to Israeli bombing, said. "As soon as there is a ceasefire, I will return and kiss my land in northern Gaza."Nothing can be said with certainty whether the agreement will come to fruition as even after announcing the ceasefire agreement in Israeli airstrikes killed at least 80 Palestinians. The agreement still gives hope for a new life and a new home for Gazans, but the facts on the ground show that the citizens are still absolutely terrified of the scale of the attacks in Gaza in the later days. The general public believes that Israel has a long history of violations of its commitment to cease-fire agreements hence they are is not convinced that Israel will live up to the agreement. Even some right-wing parties and relatives of dead captives in Israel are not in favor of accepting this deal. The agreement is thus temporary, not permanent. For permanent solution Israel will have to accept Palestine as an independent nation instead of considering Gaza as its colony, and for this there should be a lasting agreement between the two countries.</blockquote>

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