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Message: <blockquote data-quote="dalvinder45" data-source="post: 226548" data-attributes="member: 26009">'If Pakistan's army wants to escalate violence in Kashmir, they have an unlimited supply of jihadis they can train and send. That's not an issue for them.'<img src="https://im.rediff.com/news/2025/apr/23wife-of-vinay-narwal1.jpg?w=670&h=900" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />IMAGES: Navy officer Vinay Narwal's wife Himanshi bids adieu to him. Photographs: ANI Photo"At that time (when Jaffar Express was hijacked by the militants in Balochistan on March 11, 2025) the army spokesperson, Lieutenant General (Ahmed) Sharif (Chaudhary), had said that they will retaliate against the Baloch rebels and their backers by which he meant, the backers in Afghanistan and their facilitators, that means India."That's the blunt assessment from Avinash Mohananey, the retired Intelligence Bureau officer who spent a considerable time in Pakistan on security assignments, who sees a direct, chilling link between the <a href="https://www.rediff.com/news/report/list-of-26-people-who-were-killed-in-pahalgam-terror-attack/20250423.htm" target="_blank">April 22 terrorist attack in Kashmir's Pahalgam in which 26 people were killed</a> and the March 11 hijacking of the Jaffar Express in Balochistan that killed Pakistan Army personnel and several passengers.Mohananey contends that Pakistan Army chief General Asim Munir's speech, in which he called Kashmir Pakistan's 'jugular vein,' was not mere rhetoric -- it was timed and calibrated to send a signal. According to him, by the time Munir spoke, instructions for the Pahalgam massacre had already been passed on to proxy terror groups operating in India."These groups are under the complete thumb of the Pakistan Army," he asserts.Mohananey believes this is classic retaliatory messaging -- revenge for what Pakistan perceives as Indian involvement in Balochistan unrest. Yet, he also warns that India cannot act impulsively. Any military response, he says, must be weighed carefully, with international alignment -- particularly from the US and Gulf nations.While India has announced several <a href="https://www.rediff.com/news/report/-pahalgam-attack-india-acts-tough-takes-5-big-actions-against-pak/20250423.htm" target="_blank">retaliatory measures against Pakistan</a> after Prime Minister Narendra Modi held several high-level security meetings on Wednesday, the next steps are crucial.Mohananey underlines a grim reality: Pakistan's generals continue using Kashmir not just for strategic posturing against India, but as a powerful domestic tool for consolidating military control amid internal instability.What's your assessment about the connection between Pakistan army Gen Asim Munir's speech where he said Kashmir is Pakistan's 'jugular vein' and the Pahalgam terrorist attack in Kashmir on April 22 in which 28 people were killed?When Gen Asim Munir was giving this speech, instruction by that time must have crossed over to this side that some massacre has to be done or major action has to be done. So he knew it because these terror groups are totally under the thumb of Pakistan Army or you can people say the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). But the Inter-Services Intelligence is part of the (Pakistan) army. Broad part of Pakistan army setup.What could have been the immediate trigger for Gen Munir's speech that led to this terrorist attack in Pahalgam?Pakistan for some reason holds India responsible for the attack on Jaffar Express.The terrorist attack on tourists in Pahalgam is 100% revenge for what happened (in Balochistan). A revenge for what happened to the Pakistan army personnel who were travelling in the train. This is a retaliation for the same.Because at that time the army spokesperson, Lieutenant General (Ahmed) Sharif (Chaudhary), had said that they will retaliate against the Baloch rebels and their backers by which he meant, the backers in Afghanistan and their facilitators, that means India.Has this message percolated down the Indian security establishment, and how are they reacting to it?I don't know. The problem is that we live in our own make believe world. If you watch the national television channels and some YouTubers, it is full of the propaganda and a particular viewpoint. So understanding Pakistan, its games, may not come easy.How do you think will India escalate this revenge attack now that India Prime Minister Narendra Modi had a series of meetings with the security apparatus in India?<img src="https://im.rediff.com/news/2025/apr/23modi-ccs-meeting.jpg?w=670&h=900" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />IMAGE: Prime Minister Narendra Modi chairs meeting of Cabinet Committee on Security in New Delhi, April 23, 2025. Union Home Minister Amit Shah, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar and others officials are present. Photograph: ANI PhotoLook, even if whatever we do in terms of retaliation or revenge or whatever we do, we have to take the international community with us. Without keeping the Americans and probably the Gulf countries, Saudi Arabia and UAE in picture, there will be no retaliation.I don't know what kind of response India would get from the Americans or maybe that we may complain to the Saudis or we may complain to the UAE because both these countries have good relations with Pakistan. And they have also good relations with India too.Do you think India and Pakistan could head for another skirmish or an attack like the Balakot surgical strike?I don't know. But any escalation without international approval may not be good for the region. If it does escalate, we've seen in the past -- like during the Balakot strike -- that Pakistan is capable of retaliating. Their aircraft managed to reach Rajouri, using precision missiles launched from F-16s and hit Indian military installations. I sincerely hope it doesn't come to that.I also hope the international community uses its leverage to pressure Pakistan into acting responsibly. India must make it clear -- to both the global community and to Pakistan -- that terrorism is unacceptable, whether it occurs in India or anywhere else in the world.Now coming to General Asim Munir calling Pakistan Kashmir 'Pakistan's jugular vein' in the context of how the Army is grappling  with economic and political challenges? What does the timing of his hardline speech tell us?This hybrid regime of Pakistan, which is largely dominated by the army with (Pakistan Prime Minister) Shahbaz Sharif only as the civilian facade, is facing numerous challenges -- economic issues, terrorism, and other problems. But Asim Munir's main issue was the challenge from Imran Khan, whom he has imprisoned.Initially, he wasn't sure whether the new Trump administration in the US would pressure him to release Khan. Since no such demand has come, he now has international support for his actions against Imran Khan and the continuation of this hybrid regime. So now is the time for him to consolidate power and show Pakistan who truly rules the country.It's not the Shahbaz Sharif government; it's the army.Having dealt with the challenges that emerged after he took over and following the manipulated elections last February, it's time for him to show his fist. Kashmir isn't the only issue he raised -- he also mentioned others. But Kashmir, Gaza -- these are part of the rhetoric of any military ruler (in Pakistan). When consolidating power, these issues are emphasised. Once power is consolidated, this rhetoric may tone down.So you think his focus is on domestic consolidation rather than setting up any issue on Kashmir with India?Yes, I think this should be viewed in that context. His internal issues include challenges from the judiciary created during Imran Khan's tenure, continued criticism on social media about election manipulation, and protests by PTI (Imran Khan's party, the Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf) workers. He has now firmly suppressed everything. His focus is more on domestic consolidation and international acceptance rather than setting up any issue on Kashmir with India.Was this an offhand remark or a prepared speech at GHQ, Rawalpindi?<img src="https://im.rediff.com/news/2024/nov/05pak-coas-asim-munir.jpg?w=670&h=900" alt=" " class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />IMAGE: Pakistan's army chief General Syed Asim Munir.It was a text prepared by GHQ, worked on for days. This conference of overseas Pakistanis wasn't scheduled in a day. Embassies across the world must have been mobilised by Pakistan to find compliant overseas Pakistanis who could be brought to the venue to cheer for the army.Those critical of the army, his handling of Imran Khan, the elections, or his approach to Balochistan and terrorism were likely not even allowed to access Pakistan or reach the venue. They brought only a cheering crowd of overseas Pakistanis.Not many generals in Pakistan have invoked the two-nation theory and Islamic duty in the same breath. What was General Munir trying to achieve through this?This is interesting because the two-nation theory is generally considered a settled issue, except for calling Kashmir a 'jugular vein' or 'unfinished agenda of partition,' which Pakistan's army has been saying since 1947. Gen Asim Munir's invoking of Quranic verses in chaste Arabic and reiterating the two-nation theory calling Kashmir as Pakistan's jugular vein is basically to further consolidate his position with religious groups in Pakistan.He claimed there were only two governments in history formed on the basis of the Kalma -- first, the Riyasat-e-Madina at the time of Prophet Mohammed, and second, Pakistan. He failed to realise that if Pakistan was based on the Kalma, then half of it (Bangladesh) is now separate. And if they say their government is based on religious principles, how is it different from what the Taliban claims? There's a contradiction there.Worldwide, religion is used to consolidate power. He's doing the same thing -- nothing new. The notable thing is that he's a hafiz of Quran who has memorised it, so he could speak in chaste Arabic, quoting the right verses.The religious framing was striking. Is this a return to Zia-style Islamisation, or selective use to bolster Islamic legitimacy?Zia also used religion in the same way Munir has started using it. Zia used religious practices and invocations to consolidate his military rule. Right now, there's no formal military rule in Pakistan, but we don't know how things will develop.Asim Munir is doing exactly what Zia did decades back.Do you think he's preparing Pakistan for another dictatorship?It's still too early to say, but it may be inching toward it. Maybe he'll use another way to continue ruling Pakistan. Currently, it's largely the army calling the shots. How long they'll find Shahbaz Sharif useful or when they might view him as a liability, we don't know. At some stage, if they find him a liability, they can remove him.This possibility depends on how the world around Pakistan evolves. If the international community won't accept direct military rule, he might continue ruling Pakistan through proxies. Shahbaz has essentially become a proxy already -- during the speech (given by Gen Asim Munir), he was just clapping repeatedly. His stature has been reduced to that, and nobody is talking about what Shahbaz spoke about at the conference. Everyone is discussing what Gen Asim Munir said. It's clear the shots are being called not from Islamabad but from Rawalpindi.Did Shahbaz Sharif stamp his approval to what Gen Munir was saying?No, he didn't say anything significant on that. He generally talked about what his government is doing and plans to do. He avoided controversial issues like terrorism or Balochistan, probably concerned that if he ventured into those areas, any divergence of views would be picked up by the media.How does this speech connect to the growing unrest in Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Sindh? Is it an attempt to drown out dissent by reigniting nationalist sentiment over Kashmir?<img src="https://im.rediff.com/news/2025/mar/13bla-rebels.jpg?w=670&h=900" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />IMAGE: The Baloch rebels during the train hijack in Balochistan, Pakistan. Photograph: ANI PhotoYes, but we need to view the conflicts in Balochistan and Sindh differently. In Balochistan, it's largely an insurgency. Munir claims there are only 1,500 terrorists that they can eliminate. He doesn't acknowledge that the Balochistan insurgency has a broader dimension rooted in local resentment.This broader movement isn't led by the Baloch Liberation Army or Baloch Liberation Front, but by a human rights defender named Mahrang Baloch. She's been imprisoned despite not committing any offence -- she was merely protesting within Pakistan's constitutional framework. Because she's a dissenting voice, the army has arrested her.The violence in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa perpetrated by the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) is different -- it's not a popular movement. Local people oppose both the TTP terrorists and the army. Recently, a drone-based missile fired on a hilltop killed about 12 civilians, mostly women and children who were nomads grazing their animals. The people want neither the army nor the terrorists there, but there's no sentiment against being part of Pakistan.In Sindh, the issue is Punjab dominance and water distribution. There are plans for more canals, which would deprive lower riparian lands of water. Water is becoming a critical issue in Pakistan, as it is in India, for drinking, crops, and animals. There are protests in many places in Sindh against plans for more canals from the Indus basin.Do you see this as an attempt by Gen Munir to drown out dissent since Kashmir has always been a ticket for Pakistani generals to become popular?Absolutely. Not only generals but politicians too -- even (former Pakistan Prime Minister) Bhutto called for "thousand-year wars" against India. It's the fallback position to consolidate power: intensify the Kashmir issue with India, use religion -- whatever allows you to rule longer.With the CPEC facing resistance in Balochistan and attacks on Chinese nationals rising, do you think this speech was designed in part to reassure Beijing that the Pakistan army's ideological grip and control over the people is firm?He may try to do that, but I don't think it's fully directed at China. It's true that around 70% of Pakistan's arms imports come from China, making them critically dependent on China for military hardware. However, the bulk of Pakistan's export earnings come from Europe and America. Asim Munir faces the challenge of delicately balancing these two superpowers now engaged in a trade war.Recently, an investment conference was held in Pakistan showcasing the mineral wealth of Balochistan, including critical and rare earth minerals. Around that time, Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Pakistan's Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, expressing interest in extracting minerals from Pakistan. China is already extracting ore from the Saindak Copper project in Balochistan, shipping it to China for processing. So there's a conflict of interest between the US and China in Pakistan.Pakistan wouldn't oppose US companies coming to extract minerals, as this gives more power to Asim Munir, particularly in dealing with India.But is Pakistan in a position to antagonise China by allowing America to exploit mineral wealth?It's a very difficult call.There was a leaked internal memo from Hina Rabbani Khar (the former Pakistan foreign minister between July 2011 and 2013) when she was foreign minister, stating it was becoming difficult to balance the interests of China and America in Pakistan. She advocated staying with China as a more reliable partner compared to the US, but that was around 2011-13.From a military doctrine perspective, do you see this speech leading to any real shift on Kashmir? Will it embolden terrorists in Kashmir, or is it more rhetorical posturing?If he intended to do anything in Kashmir, he wouldn't speak so loudly about it. Right now, it's more of a threatening posture. Peace on the Line of Control largely came through US mediation, so Pakistan will watch how their relationship with America develops.If Pakistan can placate America and address its interests, then Munir will have more room to deal with India. Otherwise, it would be difficult for him because if America comes down hard on Pakistan following escalation in Kashmir, he would be uncomfortable with his actions.Remember, when the DG ISPR [Pakistan military spokesperson] was speaking about the hijacking of the Jaffar Express in Balochistan, he mentioned they would take the fight back to Baloch separatists, their backers, and facilitators -- hinting at Afghanistan and India. Currently, I don't think they're following an escalatory path, but the global situation is changing rapidly. If Pakistan's army wants to escalate violence in Kashmir, they have an unlimited supply of jihadis they can train and send. That's not an issue for them.How should India read this speech? How is the security establishment in India reacting?I would say there's no cause for alarm right now, but we should be careful and keep a watchful eye on whether the speech translates to actions on the ground. If we suddenly see a spike in infiltration, then we can say this is what Asim Munir promised and it's happening. If it doesn't happen, we can view it as the normal pronouncements of a dictator.What's your assessment? Was it just empty chest-thumping from a beleaguered general?It's not empty chest-thumping as far as domestic consolidation is concerned. It was a very strong message to Baloch separatists and to dissidents -- those he calls 'cyber terrorists,' YouTubers, media, and political opponents. His message was loud and clear for them because that's where he faces the main challenge to his leadership, not from India.Invoking Kashmir, Gaza, the two-nation theory, and religious scriptures is all to justify what he's doing. These topics are widely accepted across Pakistan -- everyone supports them. He was playing to the gallery, because in Pakistan, everyone supports Jinnah's two-nation theory, even if it was badly flawed and possibly structured by colonial rulers.</blockquote>

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