Pakistan Army Chief’s vitriolic speeches make India Vigilant of Pak Future intentions

[dalvinder45]

Pakistan Army Chief’s vitriolic speeches make India Vigilant of Pak Future intentions.

Dr Dalvinder Singh Grewal
Professor Emeritus, Desh Bhagat Univeresity
Dalvinder45@yahoo.co.in, 919815366276​

In his speech at an Overseas Pakistani Convention in Islamabad on April 16, Army Chief of Pakistan Asim Munir, has learned nothing from the past. He delivered a scathing speech that was reminiscent of General Ayub's speech prior to the Bangladesh War, disregarding the fact that circumstances keep on changing the situations. Concern has been raised over Pakistan's return to a strict, militarized posture that is uncannily similar to the East Pakistan crisis prior to 1971 as a result of Pakistan Army Chief General Asim Munir's hardline statement threatening Baloch militants and citing the two-nation idea. Baloch insurgents are warned by the Pakistani Army Chief, echoing rhetoric from 1971. He highlighted how Pakistan was founded on the "two-nation" premise and restating the widely held belief held by previous Pakistani generals and politicians that Kashmir is Pakistan's "jugular vein." General Munir remained trapped in a limited, India-centric time warp of unremitting antagonism, just as the earlier Pakistani generals who too were irritated by instability at that time and continued to blame their problems on "Indian machinations."
In the context of combating rising terrorist groups by an alternative or additional road of compassion, discussion, reconciliation, and inclusive development, he seems to be hiding his dire circumstances by lacking truth, ground realities, and strategic vision. His controversial promotion, which extended his retirement date in November 2022, has not given him a solid footing in the military. Some generals have felt wronged by his handling of the ground situation during the May 9, 2023, attack by violent mobs on the Jinnah House of the Lahore corps commander, as well as at other locations like the army headquarters, Rawalpindi, and several "martyrs' memorials" across the nation. The army Chief had to scrap his head to select a new corps commander to IV Corps at Lahore.

In the context of combating rising terrorist groups by an alternative or additional road of compassion, discussion, reconciliation, and inclusive development, he seems to be hiding his dire circumstances by lacking truth, ground realities, and strategic vision. Some generals have felt wronged by his handling of the ground situation during the May 9, 2023, attack by violent mobs on the Jinnah House of the Lahore corps commander, as well as at other locations like the army headquarters, Rawalpindi, and several "martyrs' memorials" across the nation.

His controversial promotion, which extended his retirement date in November 2022, has not given him a solid footing in the military. He was a former protégé of the military who was promoted from the "secondary" Officers Training Scheme to replace the Sharifs. He openly referred to the revered military leaders as "Mir Jafars" or "neutrals like animals." His actions further came under scrutiny when to firm in his footing, he appointed his own loyalists, such as Lieutenant General Shahid Imtiaz (also from the officers training scheme stream), to important command positions like the X Corps, Rawalpindi, extending the tenure of the then-ISI director-general, Nadeem Anjum, and installing Lieutenant General Mohd Asim Malik as his new DG, ISI, in order to maintain a firm hold on the army, which infuriated the veterans.

Nevertheless, the general public continued to believe that Munir was not acting from a position of strength and had failed to undermine the narrative of victimization or persecution. This was true even after attempts were made to manipulate the February 2024 general election in order to overthrow Imran and remove the higher judiciary, which was thought to be biased in Imran's favor. Imran Khan has rightly tried to project that the army as an institution was failing Pakistan hence he had to bear the brunt.

Young people from the burgeoning middle class in particular appeared demoralized, and there have been rumors of a persistent "brain drain" as they look for ways to travel to Europe, including through criminal traffickers. Since his leadership and under the new civilians he protected, Pakistan's economic progress is freezed.

In light of this, the Tehrik e Taliban-led surge in terror in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the Baluchistan Liberation Army-led insurgency in Baluchistan, which included attacks on Chinese technical staff working on CPEC projects, increased pressure and ultimately led to the March 11, 2025, hijacking of the Jaffer Express train. Munir first discussed the necessity of creating "a hard State" in his national security briefing to the national assembly on March 18. This would require all branches of government to strictly adhere to the rule of law in order to provide efficient governance and halt the ongoing army casualties brought on by insurgency.

The Islamization of the Pakistani army was unintentionally started by Zia's government. Munir's appointment made the religious beliefs of the Pakistani army clear. Munir hails from a prominent Rawalpindi religious family. Munir himself studied the Quran at a seminary under an Islamic preacher named Hafiz Khalil Ahmed, while his father served as an imam at a mosque. For memorizing the entire Quran by verse in Medina, he was given the title hafiz-e-Quran. Munir is thus the first army commander with overtly Islamic credentials.
Even after assuming the position of commander, Munir made no effort to conceal his qualifications and freely employed terms like jihad fi Sabilillah (jihad in Allah's way). For the average Muslim, these words might not be offensive on their own. However, they raise concerns when applied to the interpretation of intricate state political, military, and diplomatic matters. A few of Munir's remarks since taking over as army chief in 2022 have sparked worries. For instance, Munir, while addressing a gathering of the grand jirga of religious elders in Peshawar in August 2023, said that the Pakistani army "is the army of martyrs whose motto is imaan, taqwa aur jihad fi Sabilillah [faith, piety, and jihad in the path of Allah]".
"Pakistan is the second state established based on the Kalimah after the Riyasat-e-Madina [the State of Medina, the first Islamic state established by the Prophet Muhammad," he continued. No global force can injure Pakistan. Munir informed the jirga that "we are waging jihad in the path of Allah and success will be ours, Allah willing," continuing to utilize the same rhetoric used by Islamist extremists in Pakistan. Being a shaheed [martyr] or ghazi [one who participates in jihad] is the goal and guiding philosophy of the Pakistani army. In addition to supporting terrorist groups like Lashkar, Jaish, and Hizbul as part of its military strategy, the Pakistani army also sees these actions as part of its religious duty.
The Pakistani army has been fully Islamized. "The real objective of Islam is to shift the lordship of man over man to the lordship of Allah on Earth and to stake one's life and everything else to achieve this sacred purpose," according to the definition of jihad fi Sabilillah found on the Pakistani army's website. Munir informed the Peshawar jirga that "Allah alone has authority under the Pakistani constitution." My courageous army and I will fight this war against terrorism until the very end.
But his remarks have sparked unease, not just for their ideological content, but for the troubling historical parallels they evoke. Munir’s latest utterances regarding the Two-Nation Theory and his insistence on the “stark difference between Hindus and Muslims” and that the Muslims of Pakistan are “different from Hindus in every possible aspect of life. Our religion is different. Our customs are different. Our traditions are different. Our thoughts are different. Our ambitions are different” must be seen in this context. Munir asked his audience to “tell this to your children so that they never forget the story of Pakistan”.
It is puzzling that he has forgotten that, prior to the English manipulating it into being part of India, Pakistan, including Kashmir, was a sovereign Sikh kingdom from 1801 to 1850 AD. Although Munir's tirades may be interpreted as the army chief's claim, many believe that beneath his Islamist exterior lies a deeper sense of unease over the nation's escalating instability and the threat of its Balkanization. Growing concerns about violence and secession in Balochistan and elsewhere are also shown by his overemphasis on the Two-Nation Theory and his reference to the Kashmir issue.

The General believes that he can stop the spread of TTP and Baloch violence and potential fragmentation by using Islamist language of the Two Nation Theory. In the context of combating resurgent terrorist groups via an alternative or additional road of compassion, discussion, reconciliation, and inclusive development, this strategy is utterly devoid of strategic vision.
He held several meetings at Lahore garrison and elsewhere to appease/neutralise a section of retired generals like Amjad Shoaib and Naeem Lodhi who were advocating an olive branch to Imran. He also tried to use overseas Pakistanis to bring fissures in Imran’s Tehrik e Insaf party which failed.
The speech, given in front of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and a few of his cabinet colleagues, posed a kind of challenge to the Pakistani government. Indirectly but effectively, Munir stated that the Pakistan army under Sharif's command, not the government and he is in charge of the nation. Munir's comment confirms that there is no chance of a democratic resurrection in Pakistan anytime soon, despite the fact that the army has always been recognized as the true authority in that nation. Generals Ayub Khan and Yahya Khan ruled Pakistan directly for 33 years from 1958 to 1971, Zia-ul-Haq ruled from 1978 to 1988, and Pervez Musharraf ruled from 2001 to 2008. The military leadership kept its firm hold on the nation's politics even after Musharraf permitted elections in 2008 and a democratic polity was restored. For daring to challenge the army's hegemony, democratically elected Prime Minister Imran Khan had to pay the price of being imprisoned on false accusations and ousted through a no-confidence resolution.
Munir has had to fight to establish his authority over peer officers and the political opposition, which was energized by former Prime Minister Imran Khan, ever since he took command of Pakistan's army in November 2022 under circumstances that some Pakistani military analysts may argue were highly contentious and prolonged his retirement date.
India may easily brush Munir's remarks aside as rhetoric expressing his annoyance at Pakistan's escalating domestic problems. However, given the absurdity of the Two-Nation Theory has been proven numerous times since India was divided on the basis of that erroneous assumption, it might not be a terrible idea to teach Pakistani students about it. At the time of Partition, 40% of Muslims made the decision to stay in India. In defiance of Jinnah's advances, the Muslim-majority state of Jammu and Kashmir chose to join India. Pakistan tried in vain to establish its claim to J&K by using terrorism and conflict. When Bengali-speaking Pakistani Muslims fought for and won a new nation—Bangladesh—the Two-Nation thesis collapsed in less than 25 years.
All his ideas and actions are not supported by Pakistani people. Despite Asim Munir's "hard talk," shrewd political analysts in Pakistan, including former diplomat Ashraf Jahangir Qazi and Dawn's Zahid Hussain, have not been reassured. The military is repeatedly reminded that the lack of "a clear policy to win the trust of the people beyond the use of coercive power" betrays "a colonial mindset" and leaves little "time to pull back from the brink and save the federation." This policy "neither represents the interest of the people nor works for their welfare." "A Nelson Mandela-style initiative is absolutely necessary to help heal the country and bring about a national reconciliation," Qazi begs.Instead of pursuing responsible people for their past atrocities, the focus would be on moving past our awful history and holding people accountable.
India has to be too vigilant and in state of readiness to meet the new challeges. His current proximity to China, Russia, and even Sri Lanka, as well as their battle drills in the Arabian Sea, seem to be an attempt to form an alliance against India, which India cannot tolerate and must be wary of.
There is little indication that Asim Munir and his group of opportunistic army officers will take notice, alter their course, or learn from their mistakes.
Now his getting close to Russia, China and even Sri Lanka and having battle exercises with Russia and Sri Lanka in Arabian seas appears an effort to create a coalition against India which India cannot take lightly and has to be vigilant against.

 

[dalvinder45]

Terrorists struck at a prime tourist location in Pahalgam in south Kashmir on Tuesdayn 22 April 2025 at about 2.30 PM., killing at least 26 persons, mostly tourists, and injuring several others, according to officials. The deceased included two foreigners -- from the UAE and Nepal -- and two locals, they said.
A gethering of about 1000 of tourists. Terrorists dressed like cops targeted non-muslims point blank.

The daughter of a businessman from Pune killed in the terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir's Pahalgam has claimed that terrorists specifically targeted male tourists after asking them to identify their religion. Two businessmen from Maharashtra's Pune, Santosh Jagdale and Kaustubh Ganbote,...
Two businessmen from Maharashtra's Pune, Santosh Jagdale and Kaustubh Ganbote, sustained gunshot wounds in the dastardly terrorist attack in Baisaran near Pahalgam on Tuesday and later succumbed, officials said. Jagdale was part of a five-member group, which also included his wife Pragati, daughter Asavari, Kaustubh Ganbote and Sangita Ganbote, who travelled to Pahalgam on Tuesday.

Asavari, 26, a human resource professional in Pune, told PTI that her father and uncle were shot by terrorists while they were at a stop, called 'mini Switzerland' in Betaab Valley. There were several tourists around, but the terrorists specifically targeted male tourists after asking whether they were Hindu or Muslim, she said.

The family was on a vacation at the idyllic spot when they heard firing from "people who wore clothes similar to those of local police" descending from the nearby hill.

"We immediately rushed to a nearby tent for protection. So did six to seven others (tourists). We all lay down on the ground as protection against the firing which we then assumed was between the terrorists and security personnel," Asavari said. She said the group of terrorists first came to a nearby tent and opened fire.

"Then they came to our tent and asked my father to come out," she said. "They said 'Chaudhari tu bahar aa ja'," Asavari said.

The terrorists then blamed them for supporting Prime Minister Narendra Modi, after which they made some statements to deny that Kashmiri militants kill innocent people, women and children, she said.

"They then asked my father to recite an Islamic verse (probably the Kalma). When he failed to do so, they pumped three bullets into him, one on the head, one behind the ear and another in the back," she said.

"My uncle was next to me. The terrorists fired four to five bullets into him. They shot several other males who were at the spot. There was nobody to help. No police or army, who reached 20 minutes later. Even the locals there were reciting the Islamic verse," she said.

Asavari, her mother and another female relative were spared, and locals and security forces evacuated them to Pahalgam Club. "The people who took us to the spot on ponies helped us -- three women, including myself and my mother -- make the return journey.

Later we underwent medical examination to check for injuries and were then shifted to Pahalgam Club," she said. "After the firing started, we ran along with other tourists. Later, the Indian Army reached the spot and rescued us, she added. PTI.

A security personnel stands guard at Pahalgam
A team of National Investigation Agency (NIA) led by an inspector general has been sent to terror-hit Pahalgam in Jammu and Kashmir, official sources said on Wednesday. The team is en route to Pahalgam where it would provide assistance to the local police probing Tuesday's dastardly. killing. Local Kashmiris took out processions and denounced from Masjid the killing shouting "Do not let let terrorists divide India on religions.'

A protest against the Pahalgam terror attack
Congress MP Shashi Tharoor's important message when it is particularly easy to stir the communal cauldron. He posts on X: While connectivity is still a challenge where we are, the sketchy details we are able to receive on social media speak of outrageous atrocities, targeting specifically...

Union Home Minister Amit Shah arrived in Srinagar on Tuesday evening to review the security situation in Kashmir following a deadly terror attack in Pahalgam in which 26 people were killed, officials said.

IMAGE: Union Home Minister Amit Shah being briefed by Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah, LG Manoj Sinha and other high-level officials on Pahalgam terrorist attack, in Srinagar, April 22, 2025. Photograph: ANI Photo

Hours after the attack on tourists, Shah rushed to Srinagar and drove straight to the Raj Bhavan from the airport. Director general of Jammu and Kashmir police Nalin Prabhat briefed the home minister upon his arrival. Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha, Chief Minister Omar Abdullah, Union home secretary Govind Mohan and director of Intelligence Bureau Tapan Deka were present at the time of the briefing.
After that, Shah chaired a high-level meeting of security officials, including those from the Army, Central Reserve Police Force and the police.

"Union Home Minister Amit Shah chairs a high-level security review meeting in Srinagar in the wake of the terrorist attack on tourists in Pahalgam," a spokesperson said.

Terrorists opened fire at a famed meadow near Kashmir's Pahalgam town on Tuesday afternoon, killing 26 people, mostly tourists, in what is the deadliest attack in the valley since the 2019 Pulwama strike.

The dead included two foreigners and two locals, a high-ranking official said without getting into details.

The toll is still being ascertained, Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah said while describing the terror attack as "much larger than anything we've seen directed at civilians in recent years".

Baisaran, about six kilometres from the resort town of Pahalgam, is an expansive meadow ringed by dense pine forests and mountains and a favourite with visitors from across the country and the world.

Armed terrorists came into the grassland, dubbed "mini Switzerland", and started firing at tourists milling around eateries, taking pony rides or picnicking, officials and eyewitnesses said.
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As news of the attack spread, The Resistance Front (TRF), a shadow group of the banned Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) terror group, claimed responsibility.

The officials said it was possible that members of the terror group crossed over from Kishtwar in Jammu and reached Baisaran through Kokernag in south Kashmir.

Prime Minister Modi who was visiting Saudi Arabia ut short his tour and returned to India.
Meanwhile Pakistan's Defence Minister denied any roe of Pakistan in this.

 

[adian808]

kashmir should be indépendant and part of Pakistan, but Ladakh and Hindu and Tibetan provinces should go to India
Balochistan should be independent
and Khalistan the Sikh state should be created
Eelam the Sri Lankan Tamil state should be created in North of Sri Lanka
Romanis should have their own state in Europe , Romanestan, from which they will keep migrating in other lands but return in it in case of problems
India should be a Confederation and Eelam Nadu, Romanestan and Khalistan should be part of this confederation
The Confederation should be called Bharat

 

[dalvinder45]

Terrorists opened fire at a popular tourist spot near Jammu and Kashmir's Pahalgam town on Tuesday afternoon, killing 26 people, mostly holidayers from other states, in what is the deadliest attack in the Valley since the Pulwama strike in 2019.


The attack took place in the meadows of Pahalgam, where people from various parts of India had gathered for vacation.




Terrorists asked Christian LIC manager 'to recite Kalma'


All 26 victims were men.

Here is the full list of Pahalgam terrorist attack victims.

IMAGE: Students hold candles and posters during a candlelight vigil for the victims of Pahalgam terrorist attack, in Amritsar. Photograph: ANI Photo
1. Sushil Nathyal, Indore

2. Syed Adil Hussain Shah, Pahalgam

3. Hemant Suhas Joshi, Mumbai

4. Vinay Narwal, Haryana

5. Atul Srikant Moni, Maharashtra

6. Neeraj Udhawani, Uttarakhand

7. Bitan Adhikari, Kolkata

8. Sudeep Neupane, Nepal

9. Shubham Dwivedi, Kanpur

10. Prashant Kumar Satpathi, Malashwar Odesa

11. Manish Ranjan, Bihar

12. N Ramachandra, Kerala

13 Sanjay Lakshman Lali, Thane

14. Dinesh Agarwal, Chandigarh

15. Sameer Guhar, Kolkata

16. Dileep Dasali, Mumbai

17. J Sachandra Moli, Visakhapatnam

18. Madhusudan Somisetty, Bengaluru

19. Santosh Jaghda, Pune

20. Manju Nath Rao, Karnataka

21. Kastuba Ganvotay, Pune

22. Bharat Bhushan, Bengaluru

23. Sumit Parmar, Gujarat

24. Yatesh Parmar, Gujarat

25. Tagehalying, Arunachal Pradesh
26. Shaileshbhai H Himmatbhai Kalathia, Gujarat

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19. Santosh Jaghda, Pune

20. Manju Nath Rao, Karnataka

21. Kastuba Ganvotay, Pune

22. Bharat Bhushan, Bengaluru

23. Sumit Parmar, Gujarat

24. Yatesh Parmar, Gujarat

25. Tagehalying, Arunachal Pradesh

26. Shaileshbhai H Himmatbhai Kalathia, Gujarat

 

[dalvinder45]

India on Wednesday downgraded diplomatic ties with Pakistan and announced a raft of measures, including expulsion of Pakistani military attaches, suspension of the Indus Water Treaty of 1960 and immediate shutting down of the Attari land-transit post in view of the cross-border links to the horrific Pahalgam terror attack that killed 26 civilians.

IMAGE: Prime Minister Narendra Modi chairs meeting of Cabinet Committee on Security in New Delhi on Wednesday, April 23, 2025. Union Home Minister Amit Shah, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar and others officials are present. Photograph: ANI Photo
A day after the brazen attack, the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS), under the chairmanship of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, firmed up five specific retaliatory measures against Pakistan, directed the security forces to maintain 'high vigil' and vowed to bring the perpetrators of the crime to justice.

At a late evening media briefing, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, announcing the decisions, said the overall strength of the Pakistani and Indian high commissions will be brought down to 30 from the present 55 through further reductions, to be effected by May 1.

The foreign secretary said Pakistani nationals will not be permitted to travel to India under the SAARC visa exemption scheme (SVES) and any Pakistani national currently in India under it SVES visa has 48 hours to leave India.

Misri said the cross-border linkages to the Pahalgam attack were "brought out" in a briefing to the CCS following which it decided to take the measures against Pakistan.

The new retaliatory actions shut down the few existing diplomatic mechanisms between the two sides taking bilateral relations to yet another new low.





The foreign secretary, announcing the five retaliatory measures, said that 'the defence, military, naval and air advisors in the Pakistani High Commission in New Delhi are declared persona non grata' and they have a week to leave India.

India will be withdrawing its own defence, navy and air advisors from the Indian High Commission in Islamabad, he said.

"These posts in the respective high commissions are deemed annulled. Five support staff of the service advisors will also be withdrawn from both high commissions," he said.

Pakistani nationals will not be permitted to travel to India under the SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme (SVES) and any such visas issued in the past to Pakistani nationals are deemed cancelled, Misri said.

The CCS was briefed in detail on the attack, in which 25 Indians and a Nepali citizen were killed, the foreign secretary who attended the meeting along with External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, Home Minister Amit Shah and NSA Ajit Doval, said.

The foreign secretary said the CCS resolved that the perpetrators of the Pahalgam attack would be brought to justice and their sponsors held to account.

Hours before the CCS meeting, Defence Minister Singh said people responsible for the "cowardly terrorist attack" on innocent citizens will soon get a befitting reply to their nefarious acts on Indian soil.

Singh also said India will not only hunt down those who perpetrated the attack but it will also trace the people who conspired to carry out the nefarious act on the Indian soil while 'sitting behind the scenes'.

The CCS that lasted for two-and-half hours decided to close the Integrated Check Post at Attari with immediate effect. It is the only operational land border crossing between the two countries.

The CCS decided that the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 will be held in abeyance with immediate effect until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism, he said.

The Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank to share the waters of cross-border rivers, is considered to be the most durable pact between the two sides.

On closing of the Integrated Check Post at Attari, Misri said those who have crossed over with valid endorsements may return through that route before May 1.

The CCS was briefed in detail on the terrorist attack on Tuesday in Pahalgam that left 25 Indians and one Nepali citizen dead, he said.

"A number of others sustained injuries. The CCS condemned the attack in the strongest terms and expressed its deepest condolences to the families of the victims and hoped for the early recovery of the injured," Misri said.

"Strong expressions of support and solidarity have been received from many governments around the world, which have unequivocally condemned this terror attack," he said.

The foreign secretary said the CCS recorded its appreciation for such sentiments, which reflect zero tolerance for terrorism. In the briefing to the CCS, the cross-border linkages of the terrorist attack were brought out, he said.

"It was noted that this attack came in the wake of the successful holding of elections in the Union Territory (Jammu and Kashmir and its steady progress towards economic growth and development," he said.

Misri said the CCS reviewed the overall security situation and directed all forces to maintain high vigil.

"It resolved that the perpetrators of the attack will be brought to justice and their sponsors held to account," he said.

"As with the recent extradition of Tahawwur Rana, India will be unrelenting in the pursuit of those who have committed acts of terror, or conspired to make them possible," he said.

In his address at the event, Defence Minister Singh said, "I assure the countrymen that in view of the incident, the government of India will take every step that is necessary and appropriate."
"And we will not only trace those who perpetrated this incident. We will also reach out to those who, sitting behind the scenes, have conspired to carry out the nefarious act on the soil of India," Singh said.

The defence minister said, "India is such an old civilization and such a big country that it cannot be intimidated by any such terrorist activities."

"The people responsible for such acts will get a strong response in the near future," he asserted.

 

[dalvinder45]

India on Wednesday announced that the Indus Water Treaty of 1960 with Pakistan will be held in abeyance with immediate effect, until Islamabad credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism.

IMAGE: The confluence of the Indus river and the Zanskar river at Sangam near to Leh in Ladakh, India. Photograph: Daniel Berehulak/Getty Images
The move comes after the killing of 26 people including tourists in Pahalgam in Jammu and Kashmir on Tuesday.

What could be the impact of this move?

The Indus system of rivers comprises the main river -- the Indus -- along with its five left bank tributaries, namely, the Ravi, the Beas, the Sutlej, the Jhelum and the Chenab. The right bank tributary, the Kabul, does not flow through India.

The Ravi, the Beas and the Sutlej are together called Eastern rivers while the Chenab, the Jhelum and the Indus main are called as Western Rivers. Its waters are critical to both India and Pakistan.

Pradeep Kumar Saxena, who served as India's Indus Water Commissioner for over six years and has been associated with work related to the IWT, said India, as an upper riparian country, has multiple options.



Not only Hindus but a Christian too was asked to recite Kalma

"This could be the first step towards the abrogation of the Treaty, if the Government so decides," Saxena told PTI.

"Although there is no explicit provision in the Treaty for its abrogation, Article 62 of the Vienna Convention on Law of the Treaties provides sufficient room under which the treaty can be repudiated in view of the fundamental change of circumstances which has occurred with regard to those existing at the time of conclusion of the Treaty," he said.


Last year, India sent a formal notice to Pakistan, seeking the "review and modification" of the treaty.

Listing out the steps India could take, Saxena said in the absence of the treaty, India is under no obligation to follow the restrictions on the "reservoir flushing" of the Kishanganga reservoir and other projects on Western rivers in Jammu and Kashmir. The Indus Water Treaty currently prohibits it.

Flushing can help India desilt its reservoir but then filling the entire reservoir could take days. Under the treaty, reservoir filling after the flushing has to be done in August -- peak monsoon period -- but with the pact in abeyance, it could be done anytime. Doing it when sowing season begins in Pakistan could be detrimental especially when a large part of Punjab in Pakistan depends on the Indus and its tributaries for irrigation.

According to the treaty, there are design restrictions on building structures like dams on Indus and its tributaries. In the past, Pakistan has raised objections over the designs but in future it will not be obligatory to take the concerns onboard.

In the past almost every project has been objected to by Pakistan.

Notable are Salal, Baglihar, Uri, Chutak, Nimoo Bazgo, Kishenganga, Pakal Dul, Miyar, Lower Kalnai and Ratle.

After the Pulwama terror attack in 2019, the government cleared eight more hydropower projects in Ladakh.

The objections may no longer be applicable for the new projects.

There are also operational restrictions on how reservoirs are to be filled and operated. With the treaty in abeyance, these are no longer applicable.

Saxena said India can stop sharing flood data on the rivers. This could also prove detrimental to Pakistan, especially during the monsoon when rivers swell.

India will now have no restriction on storage on Western rivers, particularly the Jhelum, and India can take a number of flood control measures to mitigate floods in the Valley, Saxena said.

The tours of Pakistan side to India, which are mandatory under the treaty, may now be stopped.

At the time of Independence, the boundary line between the two newly created independent countries --- Pakistan and India --- was drawn right across the Indus Basin, leaving Pakistan as the lower riparian and India as the upper riparian.

Two important irrigation works, one at Madhopur on Ravi River and the other at Ferozepur on Sutlej River, on which the irrigation canal supplies in Punjab (Pakistan) had been completely dependent, fell in the Indian territory.

A dispute thus arose between two countries regarding the utilisation of irrigation water from existing facilities. Negotiations held under the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (World Bank), culminated in the signing of the Indus Waters Treaty in 1960.

According to the treaty, all the waters of the Eastern Rivers - Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi with average annual flow of around 33 Million Acre Feet (MAF) is allocated to India for unrestricted use while the waters of Western rivers - Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab with average annual flow of around 135 MAF is allocated largely to Pakistan.


However, India is permitted to use the waters of the Western Rivers for domestic use, non-consumptive use, agricultural and generation of hydro-electric power. The right to generate hydroelectricity from Western rivers is unrestricted subject to the conditions for design and operation of the Treaty. India can also create storages upto 3.6 MAF on Western rivers, the pact states.

 

[dalvinder45]

Reciting Islamic verse 'Kalma' saved the life of Assam University Professor Debasish Bhattacharya by a whisker from the terrorists' bullets in Jammu and Kashmir's Pahalgam where he was holidaying with his family.

IMAGE: The body of Hemant Joshi, who was killed in a suspected militant attack near Pahalgam, is carried out of an ambulance at his residence in Dombivli, Maharashtra, April 23, 2025. Photograph: Reuters
Bhattacharya, who teaches Bengali at Silchar's Assam University, was at Baisaran meadows when the gun-totting terrorists started targeting tourists visiting the picturesque spot.
He said the people around him crouched on the ground and started reciting the 'Kalma', a declaration of faith that forms the core beliefs of Muslims.

"So I also followed them. A terrorist walked up to us and shot the man next to me. Then he looked at me and asked what I was doing. I just recited the Kalma louder and did not reply to his question. I don't know what happened, he just turned around and left," Bhattacharya said.

The professor said after the terrorists left, he along with his wife and son immediately abandoned the place and walked back.

"I somehow managed to escape by crossing the fence," he said.

After walking for about two hours, he met a local man who guided him back to the Pahalgam town.

Some of the eyewitnesses have claimed that the victims were asked about their religion before they were shot. The terrorists only targeted men.

Still badly shaken from the ordeal, Bhattacharya said he will not be able to answer any more queries.

Meanwhile, the Assam government is making arrangements to bring Bhattacharya's family to his hometown.

"The@CMOfficeAssam has spoken to a survivor from Assam of the dastardly #PahalgamTerrorAttack and has taken a full brief of the incident which they have faced yesterday," the CMO said in a post on X.

"The entire family's return to the state is being arranged on priority and the government of Assam is in touch with the govt of India to bring the family back to Assam at the earliest," it added.

Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma also said that his office is in touch with Bhattacharya. "We will ensure his safe return to Assam soon," he said.

A group of terrorists opened fire at Baisaran meadows, killing at least 26 people, mostly tourists from other states, and injuring several others.

 

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A 30-year-old 'ponywallah' was among 26 persons, mostly tourists, who lost their lives in the deadly terrorist attack in this south Kashmir resort with Chief Minister Omar Abdullah turning up to offer 'fatiha' to him and hailing his courage to stand up against the armed assailants.

IMAGE: Kashmiri villagers sit next to the coffin of Adil Hussain Shah, who was killed in a terror attack near Pahalgam, before his funeral prayers at his village in Hapatnar in south Kashmir's Anantnag district, April 23, 2025. Photograph: Reuters
A 30-year-old 'ponywallah' was among 26 persons, mostly tourists, who lost their lives in the deadly terrorist attack in this south Kashmir resort with Chief Minister Omar Abdullah turning up to offer 'fatiha' to him and hailing his courage to stand up against the armed assailants.

The 'ponywallah' (pony ride operator), Syed Adil Hussain Shah, was laid to rest at the ancestral graveyard at his Hapatnard village in Pahalgam with hundreds of mourners bidding him a tearful adieu and saluting his sacrifice.
“I visited Pahalgam today to offer ‘fatiha' (prayer after burial) for brave-heart Shah, who was shot dead while trying to snatch a weapon from one of the terrorists in a courageous attempt to protect the tourists he had ferried on horseback from the parking area to Baisaran meadow.

“Met his grieving family and assured them of full support — Adil (Shah) was the sole breadwinner, and his extraordinary bravery and sacrifice will forever be remembered,” the chief minister wrote in a post shared by his office on X.

IMAGE: Women react during the funeral of Adil Hussain Shah. Photograph: Reuters
After offering prayers to the deceased, Abdullah, talking to reporters, expressed his condolences to all the victims and condemned the incident.

“The tourists had come to have a good time here and they were sent back in coffins. A poor labourer had left home to earn but died. I have heard that he tried to confront the militants and tried to snatch the gun before getting attacked,” he said.

He assured the family of the deceased that his government would take care of them. “We are with them and will help them as much as we can.”

Earlier, local Ghulam Hassan who led the funeral prayers of Shah lauded the sacrifice of the youth and said, “We should always be ready to die for others, whether a Sikh, Pandit or a Muslim. That is what our religion teaches us.”

Condemning the cowardly attack on the tourists, he said the women who were wailing at Baisaran, the scene of the attack, are “our sisters and our hearts are feeling their pain”.

“We salute our brother who sacrificed his life trying to save the tourists. He will be rewarded by Allah for his deeds. I pray nobody sees their loved ones die like this,” he said in his sermon before the burial.

Syed Naushad, younger brother of Shah, said he had gone to Pahalgam for work.

“He used to take tourists on pony rides to Baisaran. On Tuesday when terrorists attacked tourists, my brother tried to stop them. A tourist whose father was killed in the attack told me about the heroic act of my brother at SMHS hospital,” he said, adding the terrorists hit Shah thrice with bullets in the chest.

IMAGE: Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah consoles the father of Adil Hussain Shah. Photograph: Reuters
He termed the sacrifice of his brother as a “proud moment” for the family and friends but said “there is also sadness everywhere.”

Shah's sister Asma said they came to know about his killing at around 10 pm on Tuesday.

“In the morning, I told him not to go as if I knew something bad was going to happen. But he did not listen to me and left,” she said, describing his brother as a daring man always ready to support others.

Shah's father, Syed Haider Shah, said he was devastated by his son's killing.

“He was young and kind among all the siblings. He left at 8 in the morning and did not come back. Many boys from this village go to Pahalgam to find some work but who knew this was going to happen. The terrorists killed my son only because he confronted them and told them not to harm tourists,” the grieving father said.

He said there was no mobile connectivity in Baisaran. "When he did not return in the evening, we started calling him but nobody picked up the phone."

 

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Former spinner Danish Kaneria has accused Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif of "sheltering and nurturing terrorists" and praised Indian PM Narendra Modi for delivering a rare speech in English to drive home a strong message against terrorism.

The 44-year-old UK-based Kaneria said that Sharif has maintained a stoic silence on the attack, which is indicative of Pakistan's role.

Sharif may not have personally commented on the gruesome incident but the Pakistan Foreign Office has expressed concern over the loss of life.

"If Pakistan truly has no role in the Pahalgam terror attack, why hasn't Prime Minister @CMShehbaz condemned it yet? Why are your forces suddenly on high alert? Because deep down, you know the truth - you're sheltering and nurturing terrorists. Shame on you," Kaneria, who was banned for alleged spot-fixing in English county cricket, posted on X.

Pakistan-based terrorists killed 26 people, mostly tourists, in Pahalgam on Tuesday in the deadliest attack in the Valley since the Pulwama strike in 2019.

The Resistance Front (TRF), a proxy of the banned Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), claimed responsibility for it.

In another post, Kaneria, only the second Hindu cricketer to play for Pakistan, lauded Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for delivering a strong message against the attack on Thursday.

In a speech delivered in English, which is rare for Modi, he vowed to "identify, track, and punish every terrorist and their backers." He also said that India will pursue the attackers "to the ends of the earth" and the country's spirit will never be broken by terrorism.

"I commend Prime Minister @narendramodi for choosing to speak in English during the rally, ensuring that the world hears his warning loud and clear. Hopefully, just like in Gaza, this marks the beginning of the end for terrorism in South Asia," Kaneria posted.

 

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India on Thursday briefed envoys of the US, the UK, France, China, Russia, Germany and several other countries on the Pahalgam terror attack and its link to cross-border terrorism, people familiar with the matter said.

IMAGE: Foreign envoys come out from ministry of external affairs after a meeting with MEA officials over the Pahalgam Terror Attack, in New Delhi, April 24, 2025. Photograph: Jitender Gupta/ANI Photo
Foreign secretary Vikram Misri apprised the diplomats about various aspects of the dastardly terror attack on innocent civilians and India's firm policy of "zero tolerance" against terrorism, they said.

The briefing was held a day after India announced a raft of measures against Pakistan including expulsion of Pakistani military attaches, suspension of the Indus Water Treaty of 1960 and immediate shutting down of the Attari land-transit post.
https://www.rediff.com/news/intervi...be-no-retaliation/20250424.htm?obOrigUrl=true
The Cabinet Committee on Security headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi firmed up the punitive measures against Pakistan in view of the cross-border links to the Pahalgam attack that killed 26 people.

In the briefing, the diplomats were apprised about the dastardly terror attack and India's firm policy of "zero tolerance" against terrorism.

Diplomats of Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Norway, Italy, Indonesia and Malaysia were also part of the briefing.

Last night, Misri said the cross-border linkages to the Pahalgam attack was "brought out" in a briefing to the CCS following which it decided to take the measures against Pakistan.

The new retaliatory actions shut down the few existing diplomatic mechanisms between the two sides taking bilateral relations to yet another new low.

Amid nationwide outrage over the terror strike, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday said the killers of Pahalgam will be pursued "to the ends of the earth" as he promised to "identify, track and punish every terrorist and their backers".

In an address at Bihar's Madhubani, Modi vowed to punish terrorists behind the strike and said India's spirit will never be broken by terrorism.

"Friends, today from the soil of Bihar, I say to the whole world India will identify, track, and punish every terrorist and their backers," he said.

"We will pursue them to the ends of the earth. India's spirit will never be broken by terrorism. Terrorism will not go unpunished," he added.

"Every effort will be made to ensure that justice is done. The entire nation is firm in this resolve. Everyone who believes in humanity is with us. I thank the people of various countries and their leaders who have stood with us in these times," he said.

 

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Panic gripped Kashmiri students across the country following open threats and targeted violence in the aftermath of the Pahalgam terror attack.

IMAGE: People stage a protest against the Pahalgam terror attack, in Guwahati, Assam, April 24, 2025. Photograph: ANI Photo
The Jammu and Kashmir Students Association reported receiving over 1,000 distress calls from students across the country, many expressing fears for their safety and making urgent plans to return home.

JKSA has released emergency helpline numbers and formed a dedicated team to support students and liaise with authorities.

In a disturbing incident at the Universal Group of Institutions in Derabassi, Chandigarh, Kashmiri students were allegedly attacked inside their hostel on Wednesday night by a group wielding sharp weapons.
One student was injured, and others reported being physically assaulted and having their clothes torn, Khuehami told ANI.

"There is fear amongst Kashmiri students. Their families are concerned and asking them to return home," Nasir Khuehami, National Convenor of JKSA.

In Uttarakhand's Dehradun, a viral video allegedly featuring a member of the Hindu Raksha Dal has intensified tensions.

In the purported video, the person asked Kashmiri Muslim students to leave the city or face consequences.

The viral video and subsequent threats have left many students in a state of limbo, particularly those currently appearing for exams. Some are attending classes out of compulsion, despite feeling deeply unsafe.

"We're attending classes because of exams, but we're scared. There's been no outreach or assurance from local authorities," said a PG Kashmiri student studying in Uttarakhand.

At least over a dozen students studying in Dehradun have already returned to Kashmir amid fears of a backlash following the Pahalgam attack.

In response, JKSA has issued a nationwide advisory urging Kashmiri students to remain indoors, avoid confrontations, and stay away from political discussions online.

Nasir Khuehami also confirmed that he had reached out to senior authorities regarding the threats. "I have spoken to the DGP of Uttarakhand, Deepam Seth Ji, regarding the open threats issued by members of the Hindu Raksha Dal to Kashmiri students, including an ultimatum asking them to vacate the state. I've been told FIR has been registered and arrests will follow shortly," he said.

"The DGP informed me that a team led by the SSP Dehradun will soon visit Kashmiri students in Prem Nagar, Sudhowala, Nanda ki Chowki and Selaqui to ensure their safety and instil confidence. We will not tolerate such acts. The strongest possible action will be taken to prevent communal intimidation and to safeguard the rights of all Kashmiri students," he added.

JKSA president Ummar Jamal condemned the Pahalgam killings and called for unity in the face of attempts to polarise.

This tragedy must not become a weapon for hate. We urge students to remain focused on their safety and not get caught in political crossfire."

Twenty-six tourists were killed on Tuesday afternoon in a terrorist attack in Pahalgam's Baisaran Valley. Among the victims were 25 Indian nationals and one Nepali citizen.

 

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There has been a significant change in the public mood in the Kashmir valley as even villages that were once synonymous with the very faces of terror join the condemnation of the massacre of 26 people in Pahalgam.

IMAGE: People carrying mock bodies during their protest against the deadly Pahalgam terrorist attack, in Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir, April 24, 2025. Photograph: Umar Ganiem
Areas previously known as strongholds or symbolic centres for so-called commanders of banned Hizbul Mujahideen terror group Burhan Wani and Riyaz Naikoo witnessed residents raising powerful slogans of "Stop terrorism" and "Stop killing innocents".

The Kashmir valley witnessed an unprecedented display of public sentiment on Wednesday with a widespread spontaneous protests condemning the killing of 26 people, mainly tourists, in Pahalgam on Tuesday.
Over the past 35 years of onset of militancy in the region, the valley has rarely witnessed such an immediate and widespread outpouring of public anger against terror violence.

Political leaders, including Nasir Wani from the National Conference and former Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti, were seen leading protests across the valley.

Tral village in south Kashmir, which shot into limelight for the intense stone-pelting protests after Burhan Wani's death in 2016, presented a different picture on Wednesday where residents marched with candles to register their dissent to terror action in Pahalgam.

Tral, historically a den for Pakistan-backed terror outfits like Lashkar-e-Tayiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed, echoed with slogans of Dehshatgadi bandh karo (stop terrorism)...masoomon ka qatl-e-aam bandh karo (stop killing innocent)".

Similarly, Beighpora in south Kashmir, the birthplace of Riyaz Naikoo, once the so-called commander of the banned Hizbul Mujahideen, saw its residents walking through the lanes and bylanes and raising their voices unitedly against the terrorists responsible for the Pahalgam carnage.

The display of this anger in the village of Naikoo is a drastic departure from earlier times.

The apple town of Sopore in north Kashmir, infamously dubbed "mini-Pakistan" in the early 1990s due to the strong presence of banned Jamaat-e-Islamia cadres, reflected the same feeling.

Locals came out in the streets and marched to the main market chanting slogans against terrorism and squarely condemning the brazen attack.

PDP legislator Waheed Para termed the outpouring of people as a historic moment and said, "For the first time in the history of Kashmiri violence, we are seeing a strong, spontaneous public protest against terrorism."

"People in the valley, in Lal Chowk, in villages, particularly in Pulwama and Tral, have stood up in pain and solidarity," he said.

Para highlighted that this collective denouncement of violence, even in regions previously associated with militant leaders, represents a "significant shift" at a time when "the people are united in denouncing violence and standing with the nation".

The mass protests throughout Kashmir, especially in those places once considered the stronghold of militancy such as Tral and Beighpora, indicate a possible turnabout, where society itself is spurning the violence that has seen the region tormented for so long.

 

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'If Pakistan's army wants to escalate violence in Kashmir, they have an unlimited supply of jihadis they can train and send. That's not an issue for them.'

IMAGES: Navy officer Vinay Narwal's wife Himanshi bids adieu to him. Photographs: ANI Photo
"At that time (when Jaffar Express was hijacked by the militants in Balochistan on March 11, 2025) the army spokesperson, Lieutenant General (Ahmed) Sharif (Chaudhary), had said that they will retaliate against the Baloch rebels and their backers by which he meant, the backers in Afghanistan and their facilitators, that means India."

That's the blunt assessment from Avinash Mohananey, the retired Intelligence Bureau officer who spent a considerable time in Pakistan on security assignments, who sees a direct, chilling link between the April 22 terrorist attack in Kashmir's Pahalgam in which 26 people were killed and the March 11 hijacking of the Jaffar Express in Balochistan that killed Pakistan Army personnel and several passengers.

Mohananey contends that Pakistan Army chief General Asim Munir's speech, in which he called Kashmir Pakistan's 'jugular vein,' was not mere rhetoric -- it was timed and calibrated to send a signal. According to him, by the time Munir spoke, instructions for the Pahalgam massacre had already been passed on to proxy terror groups operating in India.

"These groups are under the complete thumb of the Pakistan Army," he asserts.

Mohananey believes this is classic retaliatory messaging -- revenge for what Pakistan perceives as Indian involvement in Balochistan unrest. Yet, he also warns that India cannot act impulsively. Any military response, he says, must be weighed carefully, with international alignment -- particularly from the US and Gulf nations.

While India has announced several retaliatory measures against Pakistan after Prime Minister Narendra Modi held several high-level security meetings on Wednesday, the next steps are crucial.

Mohananey underlines a grim reality: Pakistan's generals continue using Kashmir not just for strategic posturing against India, but as a powerful domestic tool for consolidating military control amid internal instability.

What's your assessment about the connection between Pakistan army Gen Asim Munir's speech where he said Kashmir is Pakistan's 'jugular vein' and the Pahalgam terrorist attack in Kashmir on April 22 in which 28 people were killed?

When Gen Asim Munir was giving this speech, instruction by that time must have crossed over to this side that some massacre has to be done or major action has to be done. So he knew it because these terror groups are totally under the thumb of Pakistan Army or you can people say the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). But the Inter-Services Intelligence is part of the (Pakistan) army. Broad part of Pakistan army setup.

What could have been the immediate trigger for Gen Munir's speech that led to this terrorist attack in Pahalgam?

Pakistan for some reason holds India responsible for the attack on Jaffar Express.
The terrorist attack on tourists in Pahalgam is 100% revenge for what happened (in Balochistan). A revenge for what happened to the Pakistan army personnel who were travelling in the train. This is a retaliation for the same.

Because at that time the army spokesperson, Lieutenant General (Ahmed) Sharif (Chaudhary), had said that they will retaliate against the Baloch rebels and their backers by which he meant, the backers in Afghanistan and their facilitators, that means India.

Has this message percolated down the Indian security establishment, and how are they reacting to it?

I don't know. The problem is that we live in our own make believe world. If you watch the national television channels and some YouTubers, it is full of the propaganda and a particular viewpoint. So understanding Pakistan, its games, may not come easy.

How do you think will India escalate this revenge attack now that India Prime Minister Narendra Modi had a series of meetings with the security apparatus in India?

IMAGE: Prime Minister Narendra Modi chairs meeting of Cabinet Committee on Security in New Delhi, April 23, 2025. Union Home Minister Amit Shah, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar and others officials are present. Photograph: ANI Photo
Look, even if whatever we do in terms of retaliation or revenge or whatever we do, we have to take the international community with us. Without keeping the Americans and probably the Gulf countries, Saudi Arabia and UAE in picture, there will be no retaliation.

I don't know what kind of response India would get from the Americans or maybe that we may complain to the Saudis or we may complain to the UAE because both these countries have good relations with Pakistan. And they have also good relations with India too.

Do you think India and Pakistan could head for another skirmish or an attack like the Balakot surgical strike?

I don't know. But any escalation without international approval may not be good for the region. If it does escalate, we've seen in the past -- like during the Balakot strike -- that Pakistan is capable of retaliating. Their aircraft managed to reach Rajouri, using precision missiles launched from F-16s and hit Indian military installations. I sincerely hope it doesn't come to that.

I also hope the international community uses its leverage to pressure Pakistan into acting responsibly. India must make it clear -- to both the global community and to Pakistan -- that terrorism is unacceptable, whether it occurs in India or anywhere else in the world.

Now coming to General Asim Munir calling Pakistan Kashmir 'Pakistan's jugular vein' in the context of how the Army is grappling with economic and political challenges? What does the timing of his hardline speech tell us?

This hybrid regime of Pakistan, which is largely dominated by the army with (Pakistan Prime Minister) Shahbaz Sharif only as the civilian facade, is facing numerous challenges -- economic issues, terrorism, and other problems. But Asim Munir's main issue was the challenge from Imran Khan, whom he has imprisoned.

Initially, he wasn't sure whether the new Trump administration in the US would pressure him to release Khan. Since no such demand has come, he now has international support for his actions against Imran Khan and the continuation of this hybrid regime. So now is the time for him to consolidate power and show Pakistan who truly rules the country.

It's not the Shahbaz Sharif government; it's the army.

Having dealt with the challenges that emerged after he took over and following the manipulated elections last February, it's time for him to show his fist. Kashmir isn't the only issue he raised -- he also mentioned others. But Kashmir, Gaza -- these are part of the rhetoric of any military ruler (in Pakistan). When consolidating power, these issues are emphasised. Once power is consolidated, this rhetoric may tone down.

So you think his focus is on domestic consolidation rather than setting up any issue on Kashmir with India?

Yes, I think this should be viewed in that context. His internal issues include challenges from the judiciary created during Imran Khan's tenure, continued criticism on social media about election manipulation, and protests by PTI (Imran Khan's party, the Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf) workers. He has now firmly suppressed everything. His focus is more on domestic consolidation and international acceptance rather than setting up any issue on Kashmir with India.

Was this an offhand remark or a prepared speech at GHQ, Rawalpindi?

IMAGE: Pakistan's army chief General Syed Asim Munir.
It was a text prepared by GHQ, worked on for days. This conference of overseas Pakistanis wasn't scheduled in a day. Embassies across the world must have been mobilised by Pakistan to find compliant overseas Pakistanis who could be brought to the venue to cheer for the army.

Those critical of the army, his handling of Imran Khan, the elections, or his approach to Balochistan and terrorism were likely not even allowed to access Pakistan or reach the venue. They brought only a cheering crowd of overseas Pakistanis.

Not many generals in Pakistan have invoked the two-nation theory and Islamic duty in the same breath. What was General Munir trying to achieve through this?

This is interesting because the two-nation theory is generally considered a settled issue, except for calling Kashmir a 'jugular vein' or 'unfinished agenda of partition,' which Pakistan's army has been saying since 1947. Gen Asim Munir's invoking of Quranic verses in chaste Arabic and reiterating the two-nation theory calling Kashmir as Pakistan's jugular vein is basically to further consolidate his position with religious groups in Pakistan.

He claimed there were only two governments in history formed on the basis of the Kalma -- first, the Riyasat-e-Madina at the time of Prophet Mohammed, and second, Pakistan. He failed to realise that if Pakistan was based on the Kalma, then half of it (Bangladesh) is now separate. And if they say their government is based on religious principles, how is it different from what the Taliban claims? There's a contradiction there.

Worldwide, religion is used to consolidate power. He's doing the same thing -- nothing new. The notable thing is that he's a hafiz of Quran who has memorised it, so he could speak in chaste Arabic, quoting the right verses.

The religious framing was striking. Is this a return to Zia-style Islamisation, or selective use to bolster Islamic legitimacy?

Zia also used religion in the same way Munir has started using it. Zia used religious practices and invocations to consolidate his military rule. Right now, there's no formal military rule in Pakistan, but we don't know how things will develop.

Asim Munir is doing exactly what Zia did decades back.

Do you think he's preparing Pakistan for another dictatorship?

It's still too early to say, but it may be inching toward it. Maybe he'll use another way to continue ruling Pakistan. Currently, it's largely the army calling the shots. How long they'll find Shahbaz Sharif useful or when they might view him as a liability, we don't know. At some stage, if they find him a liability, they can remove him.

This possibility depends on how the world around Pakistan evolves. If the international community won't accept direct military rule, he might continue ruling Pakistan through proxies. Shahbaz has essentially become a proxy already -- during the speech (given by Gen Asim Munir), he was just clapping repeatedly. His stature has been reduced to that, and nobody is talking about what Shahbaz spoke about at the conference. Everyone is discussing what Gen Asim Munir said. It's clear the shots are being called not from Islamabad but from Rawalpindi.

Did Shahbaz Sharif stamp his approval to what Gen Munir was saying?

No, he didn't say anything significant on that. He generally talked about what his government is doing and plans to do. He avoided controversial issues like terrorism or Balochistan, probably concerned that if he ventured into those areas, any divergence of views would be picked up by the media.

How does this speech connect to the growing unrest in Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Sindh? Is it an attempt to drown out dissent by reigniting nationalist sentiment over Kashmir?

IMAGE: The Baloch rebels during the train hijack in Balochistan, Pakistan. Photograph: ANI Photo
Yes, but we need to view the conflicts in Balochistan and Sindh differently. In Balochistan, it's largely an insurgency. Munir claims there are only 1,500 terrorists that they can eliminate. He doesn't acknowledge that the Balochistan insurgency has a broader dimension rooted in local resentment.

This broader movement isn't led by the Baloch Liberation Army or Baloch Liberation Front, but by a human rights defender named Mahrang Baloch. She's been imprisoned despite not committing any offence -- she was merely protesting within Pakistan's constitutional framework. Because she's a dissenting voice, the army has arrested her.

The violence in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa perpetrated by the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) is different -- it's not a popular movement. Local people oppose both the TTP terrorists and the army. Recently, a drone-based missile fired on a hilltop killed about 12 civilians, mostly women and children who were nomads grazing their animals. The people want neither the army nor the terrorists there, but there's no sentiment against being part of Pakistan.

In Sindh, the issue is Punjab dominance and water distribution. There are plans for more canals, which would deprive lower riparian lands of water. Water is becoming a critical issue in Pakistan, as it is in India, for drinking, crops, and animals. There are protests in many places in Sindh against plans for more canals from the Indus basin.

Do you see this as an attempt by Gen Munir to drown out dissent since Kashmir has always been a ticket for Pakistani generals to become popular?

Absolutely. Not only generals but politicians too -- even (former Pakistan Prime Minister) Bhutto called for "thousand-year wars" against India. It's the fallback position to consolidate power: intensify the Kashmir issue with India, use religion -- whatever allows you to rule longer.

With the CPEC facing resistance in Balochistan and attacks on Chinese nationals rising, do you think this speech was designed in part to reassure Beijing that the Pakistan army's ideological grip and control over the people is firm?

He may try to do that, but I don't think it's fully directed at China. It's true that around 70% of Pakistan's arms imports come from China, making them critically dependent on China for military hardware. However, the bulk of Pakistan's export earnings come from Europe and America. Asim Munir faces the challenge of delicately balancing these two superpowers now engaged in a trade war.

Recently, an investment conference was held in Pakistan showcasing the mineral wealth of Balochistan, including critical and rare earth minerals. Around that time, Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Pakistan's Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, expressing interest in extracting minerals from Pakistan. China is already extracting ore from the Saindak Copper project in Balochistan, shipping it to China for processing. So there's a conflict of interest between the US and China in Pakistan.

Pakistan wouldn't oppose US companies coming to extract minerals, as this gives more power to Asim Munir, particularly in dealing with India.

But is Pakistan in a position to antagonise China by allowing America to exploit mineral wealth?

It's a very difficult call.

There was a leaked internal memo from Hina Rabbani Khar (the former Pakistan foreign minister between July 2011 and 2013) when she was foreign minister, stating it was becoming difficult to balance the interests of China and America in Pakistan. She advocated staying with China as a more reliable partner compared to the US, but that was around 2011-13.

From a military doctrine perspective, do you see this speech leading to any real shift on Kashmir? Will it embolden terrorists in Kashmir, or is it more rhetorical posturing?

If he intended to do anything in Kashmir, he wouldn't speak so loudly about it. Right now, it's more of a threatening posture. Peace on the Line of Control largely came through US mediation, so Pakistan will watch how their relationship with America develops.

If Pakistan can placate America and address its interests, then Munir will have more room to deal with India. Otherwise, it would be difficult for him because if America comes down hard on Pakistan following escalation in Kashmir, he would be uncomfortable with his actions.

Remember, when the DG ISPR [Pakistan military spokesperson] was speaking about the hijacking of the Jaffar Express in Balochistan, he mentioned they would take the fight back to Baloch separatists, their backers, and facilitators -- hinting at Afghanistan and India. Currently, I don't think they're following an escalatory path, but the global situation is changing rapidly. If Pakistan's army wants to escalate violence in Kashmir, they have an unlimited supply of jihadis they can train and send. That's not an issue for them.

How should India read this speech? How is the security establishment in India reacting?

I would say there's no cause for alarm right now, but we should be careful and keep a watchful eye on whether the speech translates to actions on the ground. If we suddenly see a spike in infiltration, then we can say this is what Asim Munir promised and it's happening. If it doesn't happen, we can view it as the normal pronouncements of a dictator.

What's your assessment? Was it just empty chest-thumping from a beleaguered general?

It's not empty chest-thumping as far as domestic consolidation is concerned. It was a very strong message to Baloch separatists and to dissidents -- those he calls 'cyber terrorists,' YouTubers, media, and political opponents. His message was loud and clear for them because that's where he faces the main challenge to his leadership, not from India.

Invoking Kashmir, Gaza, the two-nation theory, and religious scriptures is all to justify what he's doing. These topics are widely accepted across Pakistan -- everyone supports them. He was playing to the gallery, because in Pakistan, everyone supports Jinnah's two-nation theory, even if it was badly flawed and possibly structured by colonial rulers.