Have the US and Europe Union sanctions on Russia failed?
In the early weeks of the Ukraine war, the US imposed devastating sanctions aimed at crippling the Kremlin's war efforts and cutting off access to the technology it needed to make sophisticated weapons. But 17 months later, Russia is exploiting loopholes in the West's sanctions regime to import US technology through neighboring states, online retailers, and a network of fake companies. Officials, experts, and media reports have laid out the routes Russia is using to import the banned or restricted technology. It has allowed the Kremlin to maintain a steady supply of missiles to devastate Ukraine's cities and infrastructure. Ukrainian officials last Tuesday said that Russian K-100 cruise missiles used in recent attacks were built in 2023, using more than 30 foreign components, meaning that Western sanctions weren't working.
"Restrictions have already been imposed, but sanctions need to be strengthened so that Russia cannot obtain critical components and manufacture missiles," said Head of the Presidents's Office Andry Yermak on Telegram
The US sanctions include a ban on .the sale of technology that could be used by Russia to build weapons.
Russia's armaments industry has long depended on US microchip technology for weapons components such as the navigation systems for long-range missiles, as well as drones and planes. Many countries assist Russia to acquire these.
For example The Kazakhstan back door for tech supplies is visible. Cars can be seen queueing on the Russian side of the border with Kazakhstan near the Kazakh Syrym crossing point on September 27, 2022. Gary Sommerville, an open-source intelligence investigator with the UK's Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), authored a recent report that found 450 foreign-made components were being used in Russia's most sophisticated weapons. He said Russia had adapted to the sanctions and built a successful covert procurement system centered in its neighbors and other nearby states, including Kazakhstan.
"Despite the initial sanctions and export control measures that were put in place just after the invasion of Ukraine, they have adapted and they're relying on these on these third countries," he told Insider. "It's a problem we've never faced before, at least not on this scale," he said.
Kazakhstan's Minister of National Economy Alibek Kuantyrov in a statement to Insider said that though the country has not joined in Western sanctions against Russia, it was committed to slowing the flow of sanctioned goods.
Russia's chip imports declined sharply after the outbreak of the war, but climbed again as it diversified its supplies. According to figures from the opposition group the free Russia Foundation
, semiconductor imports to Russia increased from $1.8 billion in 2021 to $2.5 billion in 2022.
To obtain the parts, the Russian defense ministry set up a network of fake companies often registered in countries such as Kazakhstan and Armenia, said Sommerville, the RUSI expert. The companies then obtain US tech in bulk through third-party retailers, and transport it back to Russia. Colonel Mykola Danilyuk, a Ukrainian officer, told the economist in July that Russia was using online stores to import US chip systems used to control missiles. Many of the parts are classified as "dual use" — where an item has civilian as well as military applications — and so aren't covered by the sanctions. "You can simply order them on Aliexpress and export them in a couple of suitcases from Kazakhstan," Danilyuk told the publication. A spokesman for Aliexpress declined to comment on the record. A search by Insider found the technology available on other online sale platforms such as Amazon and eBay. An eBay spokesman told Insider that the company abides by the laws of the countries it operates in, and observes relevant international sanctions.
"All transactions involving Russian addresses have been suspended since March of 2022. We continuously monitor new transaction trends and update our controls as appropriate," said the spokesman. According to the Economist report, logic boards from California-made Altera Flex have been used in building the KH-100 cruise missiles Russia has used in attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.
The report didn't suggest Altera Flex was breaking any rules. The company didn't reply to a request for comment. Sommerville said that complex global trade systems meant it is difficult for compliance officers at corporations to know where a product may end up. He said it was unlikely more sanctions alone would cut off Russia's supply of American technology. Instead, he suggested increased coordination between governments and private companies to raise awareness of Russian supply routes. "Anything that can be done to even slow down Russia's ability to rebuild stockpiles would have a net benefit for the Ukrainian forces on the ground," he said. Yes. They have as per various observers. The most widely discussed reasons for the failure of Russia sanctions focus on issues in their enforcement: Their bypassing by southern states in complex supply chains, the loopholes of dual-use goods exports, and companies' reluctance to completely halt business with the Russian market.
Last December, the European Union banned imports of Russian crude oil in a bid to starve the Russian war machine into submission over its invasion of Ukraine. However Russian oil was bought at a cheaper rate by non aligned countries like India, keeping Russian oil funding the war.
Russia also doubled down on fast, cheap, unguided bombs to attack Ukraine. Russia produces more ballistic missiles, glide bombs and drones as Ukraine targets Russian military installations from afar.
Russia appears to be doubling down on glide bombs and ballistic missiles – unsophisticated, inexpensive bombs difficult to intercept – as well as drones, as its strategy for inflicting a new wave of destruction on Ukraine’s cities and infrastructure.
Since December 29, Russia has launched almost daily barrages of drones and missiles of various types at Ukraine to probe for weaknesses in its aerial defences.
Russia has been launching barrages of hypersonic and cruise missiles against Ukrainian targets on Monday, striking near the front lines of fighting in the east as well as in central and western parts of the country, officials said. At least four civilians were reported killed and 30 injured. Unlike last winter, when the Kremlin’s forces targeted Ukraine’s power grid, Russia is now reportedly aiming at Kyiv's defence industry . But the almost daily barrages have repeatedly hit civilian areas. Monday’s attacks struck a string of neighbour-hoods, including housing and a shopping mall, across Ukraine. Russia fired 51 missiles of various types, as well as eight Shahed drones, at Ukraine, Ukrainian commander-in-chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi said. The Ukrainian Air Force intercepted 18 of the cruise missiles and all the drones, he said.
Russia’s Ministry of Defence said its forces used precision sea-launched and air-launched long-range missiles, including Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, to strike what it called “facilities of Ukraine’s military-industrial complete”.
Ukraine has been downing almost all of the drones and an impressive ratio of missiles. That changed on Monday, when Ukraine intercepted only 18 of a {censored}tail of 51 missiles Russia fired at the regions of Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia and Khmelnytskyi. Those that got through killed at least four civilians.
Part of Russia’s success appeared to be the use of six Iskander and eight Kinzhal ballistic missiles. These travel at terminal speeds of 9,000-12,000km/h (5,600 to 7,500mph) and are very difficult to intercept.
Unlike cruise missiles, they can also be rendered immune to electronic warfare that interferes with GPS guidance because they carry inertial guidance systems that navigate by dead reckoning.
Another reason for Russia’s success appeared to be that it had mapped weaknesses in Ukraine’s air defence over days of attacks. Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yuri Ignat told reporters these two reasons explained the low kill rate on Monday.
Russia has been regularly using US equipment acquired through clandestine means.In 2022, Russia imported $2.5 billion worth of semiconductor technologies, up from $1.8 billion in 2021. Semiconductors and microchips play a crucial role in modern-day warfare, powering a range of equipment including drones, radios, missiles and armored vehicles.
Is US industry not happy that its production has become a large earning source both from Russia and Ukraine? Have these sanctions proved to be a boon for them?
