Punjabi: Russia and Ukraine War Like Situation

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Putin has been recently found psychologically stressed. Since war is not only with Ukraine but with the US and NATO who is now open to the war by supplying finance and weapons and even some retired soldiers to Ukraine. The propaganda war between the USA and NATO goes on unabated which Russia has not been able to match. Some of the modern missiles supplied by the USA and NATO have helped Ukraine to attack inner Russia causing heavy damage. Putin is now very eager to end but there seems to be no end. Further, there has been some opposition within Russia against Putin's decisions. Though the opposition in Russia has been nearly decimated the voices are not so vocal but there are visible signs of opposition even then. To ward off this opposition a blame game has started. He is already starting. He is blaming the Ministry of Defense for its failures. He said that they failed to respond to a build-up of Ukrainian troops fast enough.

May be that now Sergei Shoigu is the scapegoat and replaced. Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin, pictured above, is being established by Putin as the face of the Russian “special military operation” in Ukraine. Milbloggers have been consistently praising Prigozhin’s success in Ukraine and some even said that he should replace the Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, whom milbloggers and Kremlin pundits blame for the Russian defeat around Kharkiv Oblast.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Russia is a highly developed railroad nation with its current network substantially built in the USSR era. The rail network is more efficient for weapon movements, particularly heavy armor.

Since the war began Russia has suffered significant rail bombings, and that is an ongoing tactic whenever Ukraine can accomplish successful attacks, by sabotage or long-range missiles. The Ukraine Air Force isn’t going to take a chance if conditions are high risk and lethal for their pilots and aircraft. Drones can help if possible to locate the trains. I suspect sabotage is the main tactic of Ukrainian partisans.

However, no doubt Putin has recruited all the road and highway transports to make sure he can supply as much as possible given the shortages that have been publicized by his own troops.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Most estimates put the Russians killed in action in the range of 75 to 85,000 numbers and Ukrainian 60 to 70,000 numbers in a 10-month war. The Ukrainian killed in action does not include civilians who have been killed by Russian soldiers. In the Russian-Afghan war, Russia lost only 13,500 in 10 years' war.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Here are the maps from the ISW from November 23rd and November 26th. Those are based primarily on Russian sources, both official Russian announcements, Russian media, and Russian military bloggers and other social media.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Russia prepared itself well before it attacked Ukraine. It took care of itself first, established BRICS, broke SWIFT, and strengthened itself in the oil business. Tested weapons and position in Syria. United anti-NATO nations like China, Iran, and North Korea. Now a double game is going on with Turkey. India can never go against the interests of Russia. This is known to Russia. Who is left in Asia? Is there any other country in Asia that can challenge Russia? Israel moved away from the Ukraine issue only after a threat from Russia. Now Japan is the only power in Asia that is standing with America, which is being managed, Taiwan will be captured by China without warlike Hongkong was captured. Taiwan is just an attraction. Actually, China has to manage Australia and Japan. Turkey will align with Russia after 2023. This will be the final nail in the coffin for Europe.After that, Japanese products will not be able to come to Asia if China does not want to.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Russia has bombed Urkeraine power projects on a large scale. Missiles have been rained on the major Ukraine citizens making the people's winter horrible. Ukrainians however are ready to bear the brunt of snowy winter but will not give up. War may prolong further since both the warring nations are not ready to come to the table as yet. Even Indian PM Modi spoke to Putin now for fifth time to start negotiations since war is never a solution but there appears to be no immediatr end.
Both Ukeraine and Russia have used mercenaries in the war. Half of them from both sides have become .

casualties. The US and Europe mercenaries for Urkeraine have only trickling effect though mercenaries for Russian were quite effective. Russia has lost a lot of their mercenaries. From Chechnya. The Wagner Group. Syria. Today it was announced they are bringing in more mercenaries from Iran. And Iran is supplying more weapons and aircraft. There have been reports of high losses among Russian mercenaries. So a Russian estimate that they have lost half their mercenaries may be real.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Putin’s ‘nine demands’ for peace in Ukraine have been widely publicized now, and recognition that Crimea is part of Russia is high on that list. Also on the list are:

1. Ukraine will ‘remain neutral’
2. Ukraine must never join NATO
3. Ukraine must ‘de-militarise’
4. Some nonsense about de-Nazification, which is presumably to dovetail with propaganda back in Russia
5. Protection for the Russian language in Ukraine
6. Recognition of the independence of the breakaway regions in Donetsk
7. Some other territory in Eastern Ukraine will be ceded to Russia - this is slightly non-specific, and may or may not be different from point 6 above.
8. Putin and Zelensky must meet face-to-face to sign the deal

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Why is India close to Russia when the whole world except China and Bela Rus is against Russia?

India is standing with Russia because in the 1971 war only Russia stood with India and none else. The USA and UK directly entered the war zone by sending their ships to attack India.
On 10 December 1971, Indian intelligence intercepted an American secret transmission indicating that the US Seventh Fleet was heading toward the Bay of Bengal ordered by President Nixon himself. It was led by the 75,000-ton nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, the ‘USS Enterprise’, the world’s largest warship.

To defend its country’s sovereignty was the Indian Navy’s Eastern Fleet led by the 20,000-ton aircraft carrier, Vikrant, with 20 light fighter aircraft. When asked if India’s Eastern Fleet would be able to halt Seventh Fleet’s advance, Commanding-in-Chief, Vice Admiral N. Krishnan, said: “Just give us the orders.”. Meanwhile, a British naval group led by the aircraft carrier Eagle had moved closer to India’s territorial waters. However, India remained calm. It requested Moscow to assist, against the impending attack by the USA’s and UK’s fleet under the agreement of the ‘ Indo-Soviet Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation

The British ships were to attack from the Arabian Sea and would be targeting India’s western coast, the Americans were meant to dock into the Bay of Bengal in the east to attack Indian troops but all of their planning went futile, the Soviet fleet was there before them. USSR dispatched a nuclear-armed fleet from Vladivostok on December 13 under the command of Admiral Vladimir Kruglyakov. Moscow ordered the commander to prevent the Americans and the British from getting closer to India. He was ordered to surface the submarines when the Americans appear to show them that they had nuclear submarines in the Indian Ocean. This plan was successful, the American Navy was halted by the Soviet cruisers, destroyers, and atomic submarines equipped with anti-ship missiles. The Russians also intercepted a communication from the commander of the British carrier to the Seventh Fleet’s commander that they were too late. The British ships changed their course towards Madagascar while the US task force stopped before entering the Bay of Bengal.

If USSR hadn’t been an ally of India, the scenario of the 1971 war would be different. This is the very reason that India is standing by Russia in their hour of need as Russia did for India.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Fearing Russia's attack on NATO once Ukraine is settled, NATO has done the following preparations.

The Screaming Eagles (101st Airborne Light Infantry) are staged in Western Europe. They are a tremendously capable and powerful force perfectly equal to take on the remainder of the Russian armies all by themselves. Marines too are staged there now. The US Navy is in the Baltic and the Black Sea. That’s probably more airpower in those two single-carrier strike forces than the entirety of Russia can get airborne. Poland sent as much as a third of some of its weapons systems to Ukraine, keeping two-thirds for itself. Poland has a stronger army than Germany. The thirty nations of NATO are fully ready to beat Russia in case such a situation arises. Will this be sufficient to face the mammoth force of Russia? it remains a question mark.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

The US proxy war through Ukraine against Russia is going to be prolonged as it happened in Vietnam where Russia started a proxy war against the US. The amount of weapons and funds being passed on to the Ukraine by the the US and the NATO countries though Poland are ensuring continuous damage to Russia's war machine and advancements. Ukraine President Zelensky has been given a standing ovation in the US Parliament for carrying their war so far but Zelensky has asked for more 'weapons, weapons and weapons'. It ma be having some artillery but its demands are of advanced jets, missiles for attack and defence and Air Defence equipment. How much the US oblige can only b guessed but it is sure that the US will want this war to prolong to cause maximum damage to Russian image and power. Not fighting its own war directly, it has a very timid front line warrior to prolong the war and Zelensky has been carrying on this relentlessly. One can now understand as to how The US had to come out of Vietnam with no achievement, like a defeated enemy. Though Russia has achieved one of its objectives i.e., separating Donbas region and merging it into Russia clandestinely, yet even Putin agrees that this region is in very bad shape due to continuous attacks by Ukraine. Wars are no solution and dialogue is the only answer to give peace a chance but the US does not allow Zelensky to enter into dialogue and encourages it to fight on, thumping its back every time it finds Zelensky's position is getting weak. There appears to be no end to war thus since the USA will not allow it till Russia is sufficiently weakened or till Russia, The US, and NATO agree to sit on table to find solution.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Both Putin and Zelensky have desired peace but on their own terms. Putin's peace plan has been outlined in my earlier comment. Zelensky gave his 10-point peace plan to Biden during his meeting with Biden yesterday which is yet to be declassified.

​

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and President Biden in the Oval Office on Wednesday. ALEX WONG/GETTY IMAGES
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told Congress on Wednesday that he proposed a “peace formula” in his meeting with President Biden which he hoped would result in joint security guarantees for decades to come. Speaking to a joint meeting of Congress, he said he discussed a 10-point peace formula with Mr. Biden and expressed his willingness to take part in a peace summit. He didn’t provide any further details. However, he said that any such discussions would also depend on Russia’s willingness to negotiate and participate in the international legal order.
“It would be naïve to wait for steps towards peace from Russia, which enjoys being a terrorist state,” Mr. Zelensky said. “The restoration of the international legal order is our joint task.”
At the White House earlier, Mr. Zelensky said, "For me as a president, just peace is no compromises as to the sovereignty, freedom, and territorial integrity of my country, the payback for all the damages inflicted by Russian aggression." The Biden administration says it will not discuss peace without Ukraine at the table, but senior U.S. officials have begun nudging Kyiv to start thinking about peace talks in the event winter stalls its momentum on the battlefield. On Wednesday, Mr. Biden said, "We’re also going to continue to impose costs on the Kremlin, and we’ll support Ukraine pursuing a just peace."
It is clear from the stands of the two warring nations, they are nowhere near any peace negotiations. The USA will add its own terms to ensure that it has a say in these negotiations and this will never be acceptable to Russia. Let us where the wind blows.
Zelensky, however, declared that he will never surrender.

Only an hour ago, Hungary declared that they are on Russia’s side against Ukraine, by vetoing the latest aid package to Ukraine. No, they are no longer a “Trojan horse”: they are openly hostile to Ukraine and the EU, and have declared in public that they have switched sides.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Ukraine President Zelensky's 10 Points

1. Radiation and nuclear safety​

Russia must immediately withdraw all its militants from the territory of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. The station must be immediately transferred to the control of the International Atomic Energy Agency and Ukrainian personnel. The normal connection of the station to the power grid must be restored immediately so that nothing threatens the stability of the reactors.
The same goes for the crazy threats of nuclear weapons that Russian officials resort to. There are and cannot be any excuses for nuclear blackmail.

2. Food security​

We have already launched the initiative, Grain From Ukraine... Ukraine can export 45 million tonnes of food this year. And let a significant part of it be directed to those who suffer the most.


Each country can join with a specific contribution and become a co-creator of the victory over hunger and the food crisis.

3. Energy security​

About 40 per cent of our energy infrastructure was destroyed by the strikes of Russian missiles and Iranian drones used by the occupiers.
A related goal of this terror is to prevent the export of our electricity to neighbouring countries, which could significantly help them stabilise the energy situation and reduce prices for consumers.
I thank all our partners who have already helped Ukraine with the supply of air defence and missile defence systems. This allows us to shoot down some of the Russian missiles and Iranian drones... I ask you to increase respective assistance.

Price restrictions on Russian energy resources should be introduced. If Russia is trying to deprive Ukraine, Europe and all energy consumers in the world of predictability and price stability, the answer to this should be a forced limitation of export prices for Russia.

4. Prisoners and deportees​

Thousands of our people – military and civilians – are in Russian captivity. They are subjected to brutal torture.
In addition, we know by name 11,000 children who were forcibly deported to Russia. They are separated from their parents in the full knowledge that they have families.
Add to that hundred of thousands of deported adults... and political prisoners – Ukrainian citizens who are held in Russia and in the temporarily occupied territory, in particular in Crimea.
We must release all these people.

5. United Nations Charter and Ukraine’s territorial integrity​

We must restore the validity of international law – and without any compromises with the aggressor. Because the UN Charter cannot be applied partially, selectively or at will.
Russia must reaffirm the territorial integrity of Ukraine within the framework of the relevant resolutions of the UN General Assembly and the applicable international legally binding documents. It is not up to negotiations.

6. Russian troops and hostilities​

Russia must withdraw all its troops and armed formations from the territory of Ukraine. Ukraine’s control over all sections of our state border with Russia must be restored. This will result in a real and complete cessation of hostilities.

7. Justice​

The world should endorse establishment of the Special Tribunal regarding the crime of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and the creation of an international mechanism to compensate for all the damages caused by this war. Compensation at the expense of Russian assets, because it is the aggressor who must do everything to restore the justice violated by it.
We have already proposed a resolution of the UN General Assembly regarding an international compensation mechanism for damages caused by the Russian war. It is endorsed. We ask you to implement it.
We are also preparing the second resolution – on the Special Tribunal. Please join and support it.
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8. Immediate protection of the environment​

Millions of hectares of forest were burned by shelling. Almost 200,000ha of our land are contaminated with unexploded mines and shells.
I thank all the countries that are already helping us with demining. There is an urgent need for an increased number of equipment and experts for these operations.
Funds and technologies are also needed for the restoration of water treatment facilities.

Almost 200,000ha of Ukrainian land is contaminated with unexploded mines and shells. PHOTO: EPA-EFE

9. Prevention of escalation​

Ukraine is not a member of any alliances. And Russia was able to start this war precisely because Ukraine remained in the grey zone – between the Euro-Atlantic world and Russian imperialism.
We should hold an international conference to cement the key elements of the post-war security architecture in the Euro-Atlantic space, including guarantees for Ukraine. The main outcome of the conference should be the signing of the Kyiv Security Compact. (The nine-page Kyiv Security Compact published in September calls for Western countries to provide “political, financial, military and diplomatic resources” to boost Kyiv’s ability to defend itself.)

10. Confirmation of the end of the war​

When all the anti-war measures are implemented, when security and justice begin to be restored, a document confirming the end of the war should be signed by the parties.
States ready to take the lead in this or that decision can become parties to the arrangement.

Out of the above, Russia may accept to implement points 1 to 4 and 8 with reservations but will not agree to most of the other points.
On the other hand, the peace plan offered by Putin will not be accepted on the points of the vacant Donbas area and previously captured territories by Zelensky. Hence the stalemate may continue and USA and EU will continue enjoying the war.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Russia warns the United States that if it provides Ukraine with long-range missiles, the United States will be considered "crossing the red line" and become a party to the conflict. It is no doubt that American missiles are deadly and will change the course of the war. With these missiles, Ukraine will want to knock out fuel depots and supply depots in Russia. Russia sees the Ukrainian Military squeezing their ability to support their troops. Russia needs its supply depots as close to the fighting as possible. Russia knows if the US gives long-range missiles, such as ATACMS, they will have to move their logistical support back another 200 km which means supplying their troops will be slower and more difficult. it shows Russia knows they are being squeezed on the logistical support of their troops and want to avoid being squeezed further. Russia owes it to losing the logistical war. This will be taken as a direct attack by the US on Russia hence the US will be considered a party to this war by Russia and will have the liberty to strike any facility of the US. This will mean an escalation of war; maybe a world war. Since the US will be attacked NATO will automatically be a party and it will be an all out war. It may escalate into a nuclear war which will be disastrous for the world.
Only direct talks between US and Russia keeping the points raised by Russia and Ukraine in mind can avert this situation.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Amid the ongoing conflict, the Russian Defence Ministry today said that 63 soldiers of Russia have been killed due to Ukraine's strike through US-manufactured HIMARS, TASS reported. Speaking to reporters, the Russian defense ministry said that Ukrainian forces hit six rockets of HIMARS at the temporary deployment point of one of the units of Russian armed forces in Makiivka region of Donetsk.
"As a result of the destruction of four missiles with a high-explosive warhead of the temporary deployment point, 63 Russian servicemen were killed," it further said. The Russian defense ministry said that the air defense systems of Russia shot down two HIMARS rockets, according to TASS. Furthermore, the Russian Defence Ministry in its statement said that Moscow intercepted three rocket-propelled projectiles launched by Olkha and Uragan multiple-launch rocket systems near Krasnaya Gora, Podgornoye and Radensk.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Russia is planning a mass withdrawal from vulnerable positions in the southern Kherson region to avoid a "devastating rout" in Ukraine, a U.S. think tank has assessed, amid Kyiv's advance in its counteroffensive.Putin is trying to avoid another situation lime Kharkiv

Moscow anticipates Ukrainian advances shortly in Kherson, and is setting conditions to remove "military and occupation elements" along the western bank of the Dnieper River, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Recently, Ukrainian troops have been pressing ahead with a counteroffensive in the region, which was seized by Russian forces in the early days of the war. Kyiv has taken back settlements along the western bank of the Dnieper River since early September.

Putin is hoping that by removing his troops to the eastern bank of the Dnieper River he will be able to stop any advances there and limit his losses to the Western bank of the River.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

While supporters of Zelenskyy say that Putin must be removed to bring peace, those who support Putin say Zelenskyy must b moved by the Ukrainians themselves if they want peace since Zelenskyy is fighting not for his country but is the frontlines for NATO and the USA. However, most Ukrainians support Zelenskyy. They know what it was like to live under a Russian thumb. They recall how almost 5 million of their relatives died at the hand of Stalin. Ukrainians are fiercely independent and lovers of freedom. They know that to give in to Putin would doom their children and grandchildren to a life of serfdom. They would rather fight the enemy than fight internally. However, descending voices against both in their own countries keep on raising. War of Propaganda for the removal of Putin is from the USA, NATO and Ukraine is louder. It is rather a propaganda war going on.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

After massive casualties in the Russian Armed forces, Russia is mulling more strikes as per Ukraine's president. Russia has already warned the US about giving missiles to Ukraine which strike deep into Russia. Russia is also going to have a test run up to April, disconnecting from US-based DNS servers and using their own. because Russia considers dependence on outside DNS servers as a major vulnerability that can be used against it by an unfriendly foreign power, which is the US. China already has a “Great Chinese Firewall” in place, a cyberinfrastructure project that includes local DNS capability, which allows independence from the West operation of the internet. The Internet is vital for the smooth operation of any country, including Russia. Banking, government institutions, and all companies large and small, everybody uses the internet on a daily basis. That’s why Russia wants to prevent involuntary disconnection from the internet by a foreign power under any circumstances. The goal of Russia is not to disconnect from the world, but on the contrary, to keep connected to it no matter what any particular country does. This goal is logical, prudent, and transparent. In the long run, Russia may plan to disconnect the entire country from the internet to simulate an all-out cyber war.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu to introduce a 36-hour ceasefire along the entire line of contact between the warring sides in Ukraine from January 6-7, the Kremlin said on Thursday.

IMAGE: Russian President Vladimir Putin. Photograph: Sputnik/Alexey Nikolskyi/Kremlin via Reuters
'Taking into account the appeal of His Holiness Patriarch Kirill, I instruct the Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation to introduce from 12:00 January 6, 2023 until 24:00 January 7, 2023, a ceasefire along the entire line of contact between the parties in Ukraine,' the statement read, as quoted by CNN.
Putin also called on Kyiv to declare a ceasefire so that a large number of Orthodox citizens living in areas of hostilities could attend church services on Orthodox Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, according to the statement.
'Based on the fact that a large number of citizens professing Orthodoxy live in the combat areas, we call on the Ukrainian side to declare a ceasefire and give them the opportunity to attend services on Christmas Eve, as well as on the Day of the Nativity of Christ,' the statement added.
This comes a few hours after Patriarch Kirill, the leader of the Russian Orthodox Church called for a temporary ceasefire, CNN reported.
Mykhailo Podolyak, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's key aide said Russia must leave 'occupied territories' in Ukraine before any 'temporary truce'.
'First. Ukraine doesn't attack foreign territory and doesn't kill civilians. As RF [Russian Federation] does. Ukraine destroys only members of the occupation army on its territory,' said Podolyak, an adviser to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine.
'Second. RF must leave the occupied territories -- only then will it have a 'temporary truce'. Keep hypocrisy to yourself,' Podolyak said on Twitter.
President Vladimir Putin held a phone call with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Thursday, according to a Kremlin statement posted on its webiste.
In his call with Erdogan, Putin said Moscow is open to 'serious dialogue', but Kyiv must accept the 'new territorial realities'.

Application of this truce will depend only if Zelelnsky accepting the Russian occupation as it is because Russia will not forego its territorial gains.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

According to Lavrov, the most important conclusion that can be made from the 2022 events is that now it’s clear who can be trusted and who can’t. “The main result [of the year] is that the situation has finally and irrevocably cleared up: what is happening in the world, who is trying to act on the international arena with which intentions and plans, who is negotiable, and who cannot be trusted from now on,” Lavrov said.[1]
[1] Лавров: главный итог 2022 года для РФ - прояснение того, кому впредь нельзя верить

Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valeriy Zaluzhnyi says: Heavy fighting is taking place at the Svatove - Kreminna border, as well as in the direction of Lysychansk. The most difficult situation remains in the area of Soledar - Bakhmut - Mayorsk, where the Russian army is actually trying to advance on the corpses of its own, but the units of the Defense Forces are holding back the offensive. In the Donetsk sector, we managed to hold the positions around Avdiivka and continue the counteroffensive. ️The situation on the border with Belarus is fully controlled.

The US administration announced a new $2.85 billion drawdown for Ukraine, part of more than $3 billion in new military assistance to Ukraine. Since January 2021, the United States has invested approximately $24. 9 billion in security assistance to demonstrate our enduring and steadfast commitment to Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. This shows that the US wants the pot in Ukraine boiling and does not want Russia and Ukraine to go to negotiating table

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Russia is now fighting for complete control of Donbass region.

Soledar

Most of Soledar is now in Russian hands, although Ukrainians still hold positions on the outskirts, formidable enough to prohibit any further advances. Russians lost more men in this assault. The real issue is the attack was mostly infantry storming into prepared defences and winning by sheer force of numbers. There were supporting attacks by VDV on the outskirts, but no major war of maneuver and very few tanks were involved. Russian army lost the ability for combined arms and mechanized warfare apparently, insofar as they had it one year ago. Ukraine is getting new weapon systems from US allies and training new formations faster but Russia keeps on dominating.