Punjabi: Russia and Ukraine War Like Situation

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

With filtered news from Ukraine and Russia the gaps being filled by propagandist new from West media, the truth about Russia Ukraine war is blocked. Still, the latest facts about the war front is that Russia has damaged Ukraine infrastructure beyond recovery with unbearable causalities in terms of soldiers, civilians and national assets and Russia is in more than 80% control of Donbas region and naval bases of Ukraine.
India can help in halting the war with its close relations with Russia and Ukraine since Ukraine has already approached India with the request. It will help increase the negotiation power of India if it helps peace in the region.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

The West specially USA and Germany have been pouring in weapons specially missiles into Ukraine. Since supply of weapons in war to enemy countries attracts attacks on the war material supplying countries, Russia should have responded with attacking on the west. But it has not done so nor it intends to do. The reasons are (a) Russia has not declared war on Ukraine. Putin calls it a special military operation. (b) The US and Germany have not declared war on Russia and are not directly involved in the military conflict in Ukraine, which Russia considers "not a war." (c) So far, even on Russian state television, there have been no calls from the mouths of the most inveterate propagandists to destroy missiles going to help Ukraine on the territory of third countries
Russia has nor right to attack as yet nor Putin or Russia want to do that since Putin's priority is to settle Ukraine issue first and it does not want to divert its intentions for that. Putin thus is not ready now to draw new countries into the war.

Why does the west supplies more of the anti aircraft missile to Ukraine than other weapons/ need some discussion. Russian aircrafts caused hell of devastation in Ukraine generally un-interfered. There were expectations that Ukraine will give up as Iraq gave up to USA in 1991. But it had not occurred. Soviets strategy of air operation has never been the same as that of the US. Soviets planned to use aircraft in close cooperation with ground based SAM batteries and ground control, working close to frontlines and not going out of the friendly SAM range, attacking targets in the tactical and close operative depth.
https://www.quora.com/Does-the-perf...or-just-that-their-pilots-arent-up-to-scratch
The main task of Soviet Airforce was to support troops close to frontlines, not make strategic strikes deep into enemy territory. The attempts to be more like NATO were made in Syria, but opposition in Syria was armed much worse than Ukrainian Armed Forces today. SEAD was never the strong point of Soviet/ Russian air force; to make matters harder not only Ukraine inherited very potent SAM defenses from Soviet times but also the saturation of the area with donated MANPADs. The bulk of work on the enemy frontlines is done by artillery. Strategic strikes are accomplished with cruise missiles. Aircraft then supports troops in the tactical and closest operative depth, or simply speaking near the points of contact and when urgent support is needed. As of late May, the bulk of Russian losses is comprised out of dozen of Su-25 CAS aircraft and dozen of Su-34 bombers, both of which fly low and engage enemy within the visual range; four Su-30 multi-roles; also a lot of Ka-52 and Mi-24/Mi-28 helicopters which fly the same altitudes and do the same job. Russian losses to Ukrainian aircraft are nigh nonexistent. Russian losses to SAMs are minimal. The bulk of losses comes from MANPADs. Russia can’t launch country-wide SEAD but successfully destroys Ukrainian air-defenses in the operative depth, allowing CAS aircraft and helicopters to operate. But those are still vulnerable to MANPADs and you can’t really suppress them; this is very similar to Afghanistan where the majority of Soviet aircraft combat losses was suffered due to portable launchers.

Russia does not have much of the guided weapons or smart munitions either hence has to go for close to ground sorties which make them an easy kill with ground missiles which are now being supplied by the West. The lack of stand-off and guided munitions has restrict Russia to this type of warfare.. Combat footage routinely shows Russian aircraft flying off with unguided rocket pods or unguided bombs. Russian Army lacks the funds to procure enough of “smart munitions”. To give one a picture: Kh-29TD missile costs around 18 million of rubles, or around 250k of dollars at current rate. To load one Su-25 with four Kh-29 will cost a million dollars - per sortie. 9K121 “Vikhr” ATGM used on Ka-52 costs around 6 million of rubles in its simplest version - or around 85k of dollars. Russia could not afford such kind of spending. Hence this restricts Russia and exposes to ground missiles which the West now supplies.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

The city of Sumy in Ukraine was given a green corridor to safely evacuate all citizens. A cease-fire was agreed to allow some civilians to evacuate, but Russia and Ukraine had differed on where the corridors would be. Sumy is just 50 kilometers from the Russian border. The Ukrainian state communications agency showed people with bags boarding buses, it was not clear how long the effort would last.​

Russian troops have made significant advances in southern Ukraine but stalled in some other regions. Ukrainian soldiers and volunteers fortified the capital, Kyiv, with hundreds of checkpoints and barricades designed to thwart a takeover.
A steady rain of shells and rockets fell on other population centres, including the Kyiv suburb of Bucha, where the mayor reported heavy artillery fire.
“We can't even gather up the bodies because the shelling from heavy weapons doesn't stop day or night,” Mayor Anatol Fedoruk said. “Dogs are pulling apart the bodies on the city streets. It's a nightmare.”

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Putin says that he will deploy the Sarmat Missile at the end of 2022, this is an intercontinental missile capable of carrying 10 nuclear warheads and reaching Europe and US simultaneously.
The RS-28 Sarmat will be deployed at the Uzhur Rocket Base in Siberia in the old R-36M2 silos
It can reach the US in 25 minutes and can carry up to 10 warheads, which doesn’t mean it will because Russia is still bound by treaty to limit the number of warheads and missiles.
The warheads deployed will be the ones of the old R-36M2 ICBMs, 15F173 with a yield of 550 kt.
Now, the US has already deployed the UGM-133A Trident II with the W-88 warheads at 475 kt.
These missiles can carry up to 14 warheads and can reach Russia in just 15–20 minutes.
But the US bound by treaty to limits its deployed missiles and warheads as well. So basically, nothing changes, the number of deployed Russian 15F173 warheads will remain exactly the same.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Ukraine Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov stated at the “Building Together” online conference, an Ukrinform reports: "To date, up to 700,000 soldiers of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, up to 90,000 members of the National Guard, about 60,000 border guards, and 100,000 officers of the National Police are involved in the activities of the security and defense sector".
According to Reznikov, Ukraine has turned into a certain kind of training ground where new types of weapons and innovative solutions are used. “Today, this is a huge training facility where testing services will be held. This means that technological things, innovative solutions and offers will be in demand here. Therefore, the creation of joint ventures, even if they are at first located in the countries of Eastern Europe, but for Ukraine, let them be located in the territories of Western Ukraine in protected places, but this is already a real necessity today," Reznikov said.

He noted that the Defense Ministry is working on supplying Ukraine with modern weapons of the kind that NATO uses, which will then also require repairs and restoration. Therefore, the creation of bases for the restoration of spare parts, various components for equipment and even an ammunition factory is on the agenda, Reznikov emphasized. According to the minister, "there is an inexhaustible list of everything related to increasing defense capabilities, the security and defense sector, and this should encourage business to invest."

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

As on 5 july 2022 the situation of Russia Ukraine war shows that Russian forces in Ukraine have improved their ability to cooperate during large-scale attacks with “reasonably effective coordination” that has allowed for the capture of Lysychansk and, by extension, most of the Donbas, according to the U.K. Ministry of Defense’s latest assessment of the war there. Russia now controls “virtually all of the territory of Luhansk Oblast, allowing it to claim substantive progress against the policy objective it presented as the immediate purpose of the war, namely ‘liberating’ the Donbas,” the U.K. MoD wrote in its July 5 intelligence assessment on the conduct of the war.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Putin's closest advisor in Ukraine War

Nikolai Patrushev is one of the few close friends of the Russian president that the latter is always willing to listen to. Today, Nikolai Patrushev, 70, is the secretary of the Russian Security Council and advises Vladimir Putin on all military decisions as well as on issues related to the country's security. He is known to be a tough negotiator and an ardent nationalist. One might as well say that with him, the war in Ukraine would continue to grow.

Like Putin, Patrushev first made a career in the Russian intelligence services, within the Soviet KGB, then within the Russian FSB. Known for his ardent nationalism, conspiratorial worldview, and extensive experience in espionage, Nikolai Patrushev is perhaps one of the most important advisors to the Russian president today. A loyalist among loyalists, Patrushev will be at the President's side throughout his career.

Known for living simply, Patrushev does not come from a family of oligarchs. Son of a Soviet naval officer who was also a member of the Communist Party, he is said to be quick-witted and to treat his subordinates with respect. This pleases Putin, who is always criticizing the Oligarchs for having adopted the Western way of life...

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Heavy shelling and steady bombardment by Russia aren’t just yielding real gains as the Ukrainians are still holding strong defenses and even mounting counterattacks on some fronts. Russia is losing men and heavy weapons beyond a rate it can replenish and is bogged down leaving it struggling in places like Severondonestk, where it has made gains and yet grounded to a stalemate in fierce battles in and around the city. But Russia will not run out of shells to fire in this war. Russia has enough reserve shells inherited from the Soviet days to last them for years even if they’re firing every second for 24hrs. The Soviets were adequately prepared for war with NATO forces and always built their war offensive based on heavy artillery. Russia however, can run short cruise missiles as they have fired nearly 3000 ballistic missiles at Ukraine, though they’re firing less of those now compared to the early weeks of the war when Russia was firing 50–100 a day.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

The General of the 22nd Army Corps have been killed after a HIMARS strike conducted by the Ukrainian Armed forces in the Kherson Regions. The General goes by the name “Nasbulin”. The strike has also eliminated these people.

Ukraine has also destroyed 2 ammunition depots in the same area. There have been an unconfirmed report that the strike has also eliminated some 150 Russian soldiers.

Ukrainians Respond To Russian Call For Negotiations
Earlier today Dmitrii Psieskov, press secretary for the President of Russia, called for Ukraine to understand Russia’s conditions and resume talks. Kiyv MUST Accept Russia’s Conditions - Says … Russia
Mykhailo Podoliak, the adviser to the head of the Office of the President, said in response:
“The Russian side knows our conditions very well. The Chief Peskov may not worry: the time will come, and we will record them on paper. Our conditions for negotiations are

• immediate ceasefire
• withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine,
• return of abducted citizens and
• reparations mechanism.

Source: Podoliak on Twitter

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

The Russian space agency will quit its partnership between US and Russia on the International Space Station "after 2024", news agency AFP reported, quoting officials from Roscosmos. The US criticised Russian astronauts for using the Space Station to push political narratives after cosmonauts displayed flags of Ukrainian areas controlled by Russian forces. Nasa had said, "It strongly rebukes Russia using the International Space Station for political purposes to support its war against Ukraine, which is fundamentally inconsistent with the station’s primary function among the 15 international participating countries to advance science and develop technology for peaceful purposes."

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Weapons from NATO and US have been pouring in. HIMARS was a very effective addition to the Ukrainian armed forces {censored}nal. It dealt the Russians good blows, But the Russians successfully adapted to the Javelin-infested battlefield. Now, these countries think of sending hundreds of HIMARS, Panzerhaubitze, Caesars, and a large quantity of ammunition in addition to modern western airplanes, a wing each of Eurofighters and F16V since they have not been able to stop the Russian advance with what they gave so far and Ukraine has been crying for more of these things. Will that be possible, is doubtful

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

How does the Russian Economy stand among all these sanctions?
.French economist says that the economy is exchange rates calculation converting Russia's GDP from rubles to dollars for comparison, which shows Russian economy as large as Spain's. But if we adjust Purchasing power Parties (PPP), a referred measure of most international institutions, from the IMF to the OECD which account for productivity and living standards, and thus per-capita welfare and resource use, then Russia's economy is actually more like Germany's size, Russia's about $4.4 trillion versus Germany's $4.6 trillion. From the size of a small, somewhat sickly European economy to the largest in Europe and one of the largest in the world. .

Sapir also encourages us to ask: "What is the share of the services sector compared to the share of the products and industry sector?" In his view, today's services sector is grossly overvalued compared with the industrial sector and commodities such as oil, gas, copper, and agricultural commodities. If we reduce the importance of services as a proportion of the global economy, Sapir says, "Russia's economy is much bigger than Germany's, maybe 5 or 6 percent of the world economy," more like Japan than Spain.

The size and importance of the Russian economy is further distorted by ignoring global trade flows, may account for 15 percent. For example, while Russia is not the world's largest oil producer, it has been the largest oil exporter, surpassing even Saudi Arabia. The same is true of many other basic products, such as wheat, the world's most important food crop, of which Russia controls about 19.5 percent of global exports, as well as nickel (20.4 percent), semi-finished iron (18.8 percent), platinum (16.6 percent) and frozen fish (11.2 percent).
This means that Russia along with a few others become the linchpin of the globalized production chain. Sanctions by NATO and US too, have not worked on Russia. By controlling oil, gas, food, and other commodities, the war of sanctions waged by the United States and its Allies in the Americas, Europe, and Asia has thus to the originators and their people.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

The destruction of Russian Military targets by HIMARS had been effective in slowing down Russia's military advance. In Ukraine, Russia lost a large percentage of its tanks, armored personnel carriers, ships, planes, trucks, tankers, weapons systems, commanders, and troops. Russia as of July 2022 is using artillery to good effect. Ukraine keeps blowing up Russian ammunition warehouses, command headquarters, truck parking lots, and other high-value targets. HIMARS, superbly accurate, is hurting the Russians badly and is outside the range of Russian missiles. Western arms prove superior to shoddy, old-fashioned, poorly designed, poorly maintained Russian equipment, tires, and weapons. Russians have stop manufacturing tanks due to a lack of parts, and the ones they bring out of mothballs are getting creamed on the battlefield. All of Europe supports Ukraine, while Russia’s allies are at the bottom of the barrel. Turkey, part of NATO, blocks Russian access to the Black Sea while its Bayraktar drones are knocking off Russian tanks, vehicles, and artillery with tremendous regularity. As Johari Salim writes, “In a nutshell, you are witnessing a very low morale army of the Russian with outdated war machines and technology versus the high morale army defending the invader with modern war machines and technology.”

But this is one side reporting from Ukraine, the US, and NATO. The reality is the number of HIMARS and other equipment supplied by NATO and the US is not enough to hold the multitudes Russia is advancing with and it is not far when Russia will have total control Donbas Region and declare it as an independent as was signed by both the warring nations earlier and NATO testified the writing.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

If the military conflict continues for a few more months, up to 90% of Ukraine's population will live on $5.50 a day or less by the end of the year, according to DAFINA GERCHEVA, a representative of the United Nations Development Program in Ukraine. She also said that more than 30% of Ukrainian enterprises have closed over the past month, and more than $100 billion worth of damage has been caused to infrastructure. As per a Guardian report, Ukraine was already in deep poverty and took a heavy loan from the IMF. The country was suffering from huge unemployment and massive exploitation, the women of Ukrainian got paid for surrogacy, baby fetuses used to make vaccines/serum, human trafficking, and forced labor. Earlier Ukrainian was important for the Soviet Union as it was a manufacturing hub for all kinds of sophisticated Soviet technology but after the 1991 tragedy, everything got messed up.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

USA-supplied HIMARS has been causing havoc with Russian forces causing fear among the forward lie troops as well. Russia wished for their total destruction. A recent Missile attack on their storage was an attempt in which HIMARS were destroyed. The Russians claim numerous HIMARS have been destroyed. Separate claims of four and two HIMARS have been made by Russia. Destruction of a few HIMARS is enough to get rid of the fear in their minds. Russia claims on July 5 and 20, four launchers and one reloading vehicle for the US-made multiple launch rocket systems (HIMARS) were destroyed.” Kyiv rejected Moscow’s claims, calling them “fakes” designed to undermine the West’s support for Ukraine. Russia has provided no photos or drone footage to back up its claims. The Pentagon confirmed no HIMARS has been destroyed by Russia.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

The Russians are determined to hold on Donbas region plus the South East regions closing the access to the black sea from the Ukrainian authorities. Russia wants to dominate as larger territories of current Ukraine in order to create a buffer zone between Russia and the new NATO country.
The Russian Ministry of Defense is preparing to hold military exercises in the east of the country starting next month, the country's news agencies reported. At the same time, the fierce battles continue in the land of Ukraine. Ukrainian officials say that Russia launched a "massive missile attack" on the south of the country a day before, including damage to the infrastructure at Mykolaiv port on the Black Sea. Moscow claimed to have destroyed eight missile and weapons depots in the east of the country. In response, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said that the forces destroyed 50 Russian ammunition depots using US-supplied HIMARS missile systems.

At the same time, Germany transferred three rocket launchers, five anti-aircraft guns, and three howitzer-type guns to Ukraine. "We keep our word," said German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht. Britain also sent another warning message to Moscow, imposing sanctions on other people and entities in response to the invasion of Ukraine, the British Foreign Office said.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Reports emerge that US-supplied HIMARS were all destroyed long back but Ukraine aided by US and NATO has been propagating certain attacks on Russian ammunitions and supply depot remains through fake videos. All of the HIMARS were wiped out and new ones are not supplied by the US. All sides use propaganda in wars. But Ukraine has lots of western media roaming around. They’re providing verified videos of HIMAR strikes. And Western government sources are indicating what strikes are coming from HIMARS.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Russian missiles hit Kyiv Artyom Factory, a major military-industrial complex in the central part of Kyiv to divert Ukraine MIs interest in Donbas and Crimea. The Artyom Factory was founded in the 19th century when the city was significantly smaller. The factory is named after prominent Soviet revolutionary Artyom Fyodor Sergeev who was one of the founders of the Soviet Donbas. Artyom was Stalin’s close friend, and Stalin cared for his son when Artyom died in a train crash. Stalin’s son Vasily and the younger Sergeev grew up together.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Putin has amalgamated 4 states of Ukraine after a prolonged war and then through a decree of the President of Russia. Putin has now offered to have talks with Ukraine and India has come forward to become a mediator. However, Zelensky has politely declined the offer saying that till the annexed areas are returned he will continue to fight and will not go to the negotiating table. Meanwhile USA has said that India is being moved away from Russia. Will US be able to break the deep relationship between the two? It seems quite a dream as both India and Russia have deep business relationships which will be harmed if India moves closer to the USA. These relationships are in the following fields.
The drift between Indo-Russia relationships has started way back in UPA government. When UPA government disclosed its secret nuclear reactors to world under the influence of USA, while Russia was against this move.

But, Indo-Russia ties won’t be broken so easily. Following are few strong points in favor of my opinion:

1] Russia licensing indian ordinance factories to produce SU-30MKI. Billions of investments are at stake for both the nation, and due to declining GDP, Russia won’t afford to let go off this deal.

2] Russia has licensed and supplying T-90 Bhishma tanks {1000+ till 2020}. This deal will also boost Russia’s economy.

3] Many India companies have its share {upto 50% in some cases} in Russian oil refineries. Russia itself has asked India & China to invest in their oil refineries and buy their shares.

4] India & Russia have jointly developed BrahMos cruise missiles. {49.5% russian shares & 50.5% indian shares}. India & Russia are looking forward to export these missiles to gain economic benefits. By 2020, both nations planned to jointly produce 2000 BrahMos missiles, 1000 for their own use, and remaining 1000 for export.

5] Russia is making Nuclear Reactors for India. Russia won’t afford to loose this contract by abandoning its relationship with India for the sake of Pakistan.

6] India & Russia are jointly developing SU-50 FGFA, these joint ventures shows our strong relationship with Russia.

7] Russia is selling us S-400 Missile system, the same system which defends the airspace of Moscow. India along with China will be the 1st of world to have those S-400 missiles.

8] Russia has recently backed India’s Surgical Strike in PoK on 29th september. This shows that Moscow is standing with New Delhi.

In nutshell, Russia is in no condition to lose its ties with the world's emerging market. India's ties have become a bit bitter, and they still, have a solid working relationship.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Russia has annexed four states of Ukraine. Ukraine and Sweden have now refused to join NATO. Poland has refused to send jets sent by the US to Ukraine but instead has offered these to send back to the USA. The cities of Mariupol, Kherson & Mariupol, 2 Nuclear Facilities & 30 Biolabs in Ukraine are now under the control of Russia in addition to full control of Donbas and 61 Towns in the region. The claims by the West and Ukraine's use of Mig 31s, Chemical Weapons, and Vacuum Bombs by Russia have proved false.
Zelinsky's claim to continue fighting does not stand to logic as it will cause further destruction. However, this has exposed the weaknesses of the Russian, Army, weapon systems, and supply systems. It has also exposed the hollowness of the so-called assistance to Ukraine by the USA and the West. The losses to Russia and Ukraine in this war are colossal and this was what the USA wanted by putting two friends to fight and taking away the booty like in the story of the monkey and the two cats.